Quebec separatists return to power, setting up new friction with Ottawa

Key points

• The Parti Québécois (PQ) won the most seats in a five-party race but secured only a minority government, with 28% of the popular vote.
• The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) was wiped off the electoral map, a rare occurrence in Canadian history, after eight years in power.
• St-Pierre Plamondon pledged to hold an independence referendum, though polls indicate only about 30% of Quebecers support separation.
• The new premier vowed to challenge Ottawa on immigration quotas and the role of the monarchy in Quebec, including defunding the lieutenant-governor’s office.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with the new premier-designate, stating he is focused on current national challenges rather than future provincial referendums.

Background

This election follows a period of heightened tension between Canada and the United States due to trade tariffs. In September 2026, Carney’s Liberals won three by-elections, including one in Quebec, which bolstered his federal majority. The current result complicates Carney’s unity push, especially as Alberta also faces a potential separation vote. Previous independence referendums in 1980 and 1995 were defeated, and the PQ has not held power since 2014.

How outlets are covering it

Politico emphasizes the political collapse of the CAQ and the direct challenge this poses to Carney’s unity efforts amidst the US trade war. BBC highlights the legal and constitutional hurdles St-Pierre Plamondon faces regarding the monarchy and the need for coalition support from parties like Québec Solidaire. CBC focuses on the projection of a minority government and the immediate transition from the outgoing CAQ leadership. All sources agree on the 28% vote share and the minority status of the PQ government.

Why it matters

The election result creates a dual unity crisis for Canada, with separatist movements in both Quebec and Alberta. It tests the limits of federal-provincial relations, particularly regarding the monarchy and immigration, while complicating Carney’s strategy to maintain national cohesion in the face of external economic pressures from the United States.

What to watch

St-Pierre Plamondon must secure support from other parties, such as Québec Solidaire, to pass legislation. He has indicated that any independence referendum would likely occur after 2029 or 2030, once the current US administration is out of office. Legal battles over the defunding of the lieutenant-governor’s office are expected to follow.