The Decline of Russia's Godfather

The recent rebellion led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in Russia has drawn comparisons to the country's historical period known as the Time of Troubles, which lasted from 1604 to 1613. During this time, Russia experienced political instability, civil war, and foreign occupation. While the Prigozhin affair has changed the situation in Russia, it is more reminiscent of the Smuta than the events of 1917. The Smuta serves as a useful framework for understanding the current state of Russia, with its archaic sociopolitical structures and institutions. The rebellion weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin's authority, but it did not lead to his downfall. The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk of another period of turmoil in Russia.