The Uncertain Fate of Ukraine's Counteroffensive

NATO needs to prepare for the possibility of Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia failing to achieve significant success. The current operations involve reconnaissance-in-force along four separate axes of advance, with Ukrainian units probing Russian positions to identify weak spots that can then be softened up with artillery and exploited by armoured reserve forces. However, the odds are stacked against Kyiv, with Russia having numerical superiority in men, tanks, and artillery, as well as air power. If the offensive falters, the West will need to turn to the question of how to expand Ukraine's offensive capability and announce a definitive path to Ukraine's membership of NATO.