Tories pivot to 'old-school' conservatism as Badenoch defies Reform UK

Key points

• Kemi Badenoch has ruled out governing with Reform UK in a hung parliament, preferring a new election to a coalition deal.
• The Conservative Party trails Reform UK by 4-5 points and Labour by up to 9 points in current polls.
• Badenoch’s personal approval rating has improved, making her one of only two party leaders with a net positive rating, though this has not yet translated to party support.
• The party is adopting an 'old-school' Conservative stance, focusing on the economy and dropping some 'culture war' rhetoric, though Badenoch has also engaged in debates on net zero and human rights conventions.
• Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake claims the party is now the 'least hated' in the country, a key metric for tactical voting.

Background

The Conservatives suffered a significant defeat in the 2024 general election, losing power after 14 years. Since then, the party has faced internal instability and the rise of Reform UK, which has siphoned off right-wing voters. The current political landscape is defined by a fragmented right, with multiple parties competing for anti-Labour votes, while the Conservatives struggle to regain its status as the primary opposition.

How outlets are covering it

BBC reports that the party is in an 'upbeat mood' at its Birmingham conference, with Badenoch’s strong performance in Prime Minister’s Questions boosting her personal brand. However, the party remains divided on its strategy. The Guardian’s Frances Ryan argues that the 'Keminaissance' is a delusion, noting that Badenoch’s focus on welfare cuts and culture wars, rather than substantive economic solutions, alienates voters. The Independent highlights Badenoch’s attempt to position herself as a modern-day Margaret Thatcher, but questions whether this rightward pivot will succeed in a market where Reform UK is already pushing further right. The Telegraph’s content was inaccessible due to a security block, so its perspective cannot be assessed.

Why it matters

The Conservative Party’s strategy determines the future of UK opposition politics. If Badenoch can convert her personal popularity into party support, it could reshape the 2027 election. However, her refusal to ally with Reform UK risks leaving anti-Labour voters fragmented, potentially allowing Labour to retain power despite its own unpopularity. The party’s ability to rebuild trust after 14 years in government is the central challenge.

What to watch

The Conservatives will likely continue to refine their 'old-school' platform, focusing on economic issues while avoiding a formal pact with Reform UK. Badenoch’s next major test will be translating her personal approval into party support, potentially through a snap election if the political climate shifts. The party’s performance in local elections and by-elections will be key indicators of its recovery.