AI-Driven WeatherNext Cyclones Elevates Tropical Cyclone Forecasts via Massive Ensembles

Nature reports WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C), an AI-powered operational weather model that generates state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts for the track, intensity, and size of tropical cyclones worldwide. Trained on global analysis data and historical cyclones, WN-C produces ensembles up to 1,000 members up to 15 days ahead, delivering about a day or more of lead time improvement over leading models. The system shows that high-resolution input is not strictly required for strong intensity forecasts, and that including WN-C in a weighted ensemble improves overall skill, marking a step-change toward more reliable and timely forecasts and warnings.