July Territorial Gains: Russia Advances 36 sq km, Ukraine Reclaims More Elsewhere

Key points

• DeepState reports a net Russian territorial gain of 36 square kilometers in July, potentially 88 square kilometers when including delayed data from May and June.
• Ukrainian forces reclaimed 49 and 83 square kilometers in two separate sectors, indicating significant counter-advances despite the net loss.
• ISW assesses Russia's advance rate at 1.22 square kilometers per day, far below the 455 square kilometers seized in July 2025.
• Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties in July, the highest monthly toll of 2026, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.
• DeepState states Russia's goal to occupy all of Donetsk Oblast in 2026 is unrealistic at the current pace.

Background

This development follows a period of intense Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure and Crimea, as well as a surge in Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. In late July, Ukraine reported its highest civilian casualty toll in four years, prompting calls for increased Patriot interceptor support. The current territorial data provides a quantitative measure of the battlefield's stalemate amidst these high-intensity exchanges.

How outlets are covering it

DeepState and Ukrainska Pravda emphasize the net territorial loss for Ukraine in July but highlight significant Ukrainian counter-advances in other sectors, suggesting a dynamic rather than static front. ISW focuses on the strategic inefficiency of Russia's advance, noting that despite high casualties, Russia's progress is minimal and far below previous years. While DeepState cites operational security for delayed data, ISW points to cognitive warfare efforts by the Kremlin to exaggerate their gains. All sources agree that Russia's advance is slow and costly, but they differ in emphasis: DeepState on the net loss, ISW on the strategic failure, and Ukrainska Pravda on the unrealizability of Russia's broader goals.

Why it matters

The data underscores the high cost and low yield of Russia's offensive, with record casualties yielding minimal territorial gains. This suggests a potential shift in Russian strategy or a continued stalemate, impacting diplomatic negotiations and resource allocation for both sides. The discrepancy between claimed and actual gains also highlights the importance of independent OSINT in verifying battlefield claims.

What to watch

DeepState expects to release updated figures once Ukrainian advances are officially announced. ISW will continue monitoring Russia's ability to sustain its missile strike intensity despite stockpile depletion. The focus will likely shift to the impact of Russian satellite communications on drone warfare and the potential for further Ukrainian counter-attacks in the sectors where they made gains.