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Isw

All articles tagged with #isw

world9 days ago•10 min saved

ISW Update: Ukraine Advances Amid Russia’s Strained Economy and Ongoing Attacks

ISW’s May 15, 2026 assessment notes Putin portraying Russia’s economy as strong despite clear strain, while Zelensky warns of Russia reconnoitering near Kyiv. Sanctions relief paired with slowed Patriot interceptors could raise the threat of missile strikes on Ukraine. A Russian state poll shows a small rebound in Putin’s approval. The two sides exchanged 250 prisoners as part of a 1,000-for-1,000 deal. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced near Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka; Russia launched missiles and drones overnight, while Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai.

via Kyiv Post|

#isw #military-analysis #russia

war-in-ukraine15 days ago•3 min saved

ISW: Russian Offensive Stalls as Ukraine Regains Ground Across Front

ISW says Russia has failed to make significant operational progress in the past year, while Ukraine has regained territory across the front—including parts of Kupiansk and major gains in the south—driven by Ukrainian counteroffensives and long-range strikes. The May ceasefire lacked enforcement mechanisms, suggesting it won’t hold without stronger monitoring, and Moscow’s capacity for large-scale offensives remains constrained ahead of Victory Day.

via UNITED24 Media|

#ceasefire #frontlines #isw

world21 days ago•18 min saved

Putin Tightens Security Over Safety Fears as Ukraine Frontlines See Slow Progress

A leaked European intelligence report claims Putin is increasingly worried about his personal safety and that of senior officials, prompting tighter security; ISW notes there is no independent evidence of a coup risk but confirms heightened security around Putin and senior figures. On the battlefield, Russian forces have not achieved meaningful gains around Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian forces counterattack and conduct strikes against Russian assets with drones. Zelensky announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 5–6 in response to Russian Victory Day rhetoric, and Sweden seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker, underscoring Western efforts to disrupt Moscow’s oil shipments. Russia also conducted long-range missile and drone strikes that damaged civilian infrastructure in several oblasts.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#drones #isw #kostyantynivka

world23 days ago•4 min saved

ISW Update: Russia’s 2026 Ukraine Advances Slow as Infiltration Tactics Rise

ISW reports that Russia posted a net territorial loss in April 2026—the first in Ukraine since August 2024—with the pace of advances slowing in 2026 due to seasonal patterns and a shift to infiltration tactics. ISW’s mapping updates do not change trendlines; Russian air campaigns show issues despite localized gains near Novopavlivka and in western Zaporizhzia, while Ukraine has countered with strikes on air defenses and high drone activity (163 drones overnight).

via Kyiv Post|

#infiltration #isw #russia

world23 days ago•20 min saved

ISW: April 2026 marks first net Russian territorial loss as infiltration tactics surge

ISW reports that Russia net-lost about 116 sq km of Ukrainian ground in April 2026—the first such loss since 2024—while the Nov 2025–Apr 2026 window shows Russia seizing 1,443.35 sq km but infiltrating an additional 1,716.42 sq km, meaning infiltration areas inflate apparent gains without reliable Ukrainian control. The rate of Russian advances slowed to roughly 2.9 sq km per day in early 2026 versus 9.76 per day in early 2025, with colder/wetter winter weather, ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, and weather-driven movement limiting tempo. ISW notes continued activity near Novopavlivka and western Zaporizhia, Ukrainian gains in Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, and persistent long-range strikes across occupied Crimea and Kherson, while it emphasizes its methodological separation of infiltration from seized terrain.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#infiltration #isw #russia-ukraine

world2 months ago•6 min saved

ISW: Battlefield Shifts Undermine Russia’s Victory Narrative in Ukraine War

A February 2026 ISW assessment argues that battlefield realities negate Moscow’s claim of an inevitable Ukrainian defeat, noting Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed significant ground since December and February, eroding Russia’s original war aims; Russia has not secured a permanent edge and faces setbacks as it moves to stabilize positions ahead of potential renewed offensives, while Ukraine’s gains and Russian command‑and‑control failures complicate Moscow’s plans.

via Euromaidan Press|

#battlefield #counterattacks #isw

world3 months ago•32 min saved

Ukraine Reverses Moscow Momentum as ISW Flags Kremlin Strain

ISW notes Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk and in Dnipropetrovsk–Zaporizhia directions netted about 165 square kilometers in February, challenging Moscow’s claims of an inevitable victory and signaling Russia will have to fight to stabilize defenses this spring. Russia faces manpower and funding strains, inflation, and sanctions, with talk of limited involuntary mobilization and tighter information control; Kremlin also leverages SVR claims about Ukraine’s nuclear status to justify the war and press Western security guarantees. Ukraine, backed by Western allies, remains committed to democracy despite ongoing Russian strikes, and ISW warns that while no large-scale Ukrainian breakthrough has occurred, localized gains could slow a broader Russian offensive in the near term.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#battlefield #isw #mobilization

world3 months ago•26 min saved

Kremlin bets on narrative of inevitable victory as ISW flags limited 2026 gains

ISW and Rudskoy offer conflicting pictures of 2026 progress: Rudskoy claims roughly 900 km2 and 42 settlements seized since 2026, while ISW assesses only about 19 settlements and 572 square kilometers gained so far, with limited advances balanced by Ukrainian counterattacks around Hulyaipole, Novopavlivka, and other fronts. The Kremlin continues cognitive warfare to sell inevitable victory and expands a “buffer zone” along the border, while cracking down on former pro-Russian separatists to control the information space ahead of the 2026 State Duma elections. Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets persist, and Moscow–Belarus coordination intensifies, but overall gains are marginal and costly.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#isw #propaganda #russia

world3 months ago•6 min saved

Starlink blockade hinders Russia's elite drone unit, ISW reports

ISW says SpaceX’s ban on unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine is already hampering Russia’s Rubikon Center drone unit and its deep-strike capabilities; a Ukrainian commander says Russia will likely need about six months to find a workaround, while Ukraine’s unmanned forces must balance rear-area strikes with frontline defense.

via Euromaidan Press|

#drones #isw #rubikon-center

world3 months ago•9 min saved

ISW Update: Russia targets Ukraine's energy grid as diplomacy stalls

ISW reports Russia launched a major strike against Ukraine’s energy system, specifically targeting substations supporting nuclear power plants, while leveraging a temporary moratorium on strikes to stockpile drones and missiles for further attacks. The United States is pressuring Ukraine to move toward a peace deal, while Russia remains adamant that Kyiv concede fully. Separately, Russian forces have advanced near the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka area and near Pokrovsk, and a February 6 assassination attempt is said to have left GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseyev alive.

via Kyiv Post|

#energy-infrastructure #isw #peace-negotiations

world4 months ago•28 min saved

Winter drag slows Russian advances as ISW flags tempered momentum in Ukraine

ISW’s January 14, 2026 assessment says Russian advances slowed late 2025 into January, likely due to harsher winter conditions and pressure to hit year-end goals. Russian gains declined after peaking in early December, with about 276 km2 gained Dec 1–17, then ~89 km2 (Dec 17–31) and ~74 km2 (Dec 31–Jan 13). While poor weather briefly aided some advances, colder temperatures are constraining the infantry-heavy offensive template. Moscow continues to push broader territorial aims beyond the current peace plans (including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa obasts) and sustains a cognitive warfare campaign with limited cross-border attacks in northern Ukraine, not yet signaling a major northern offensive. Ukraine has made political-military moves (e.g., Fedorov as defense minister) while Western diplomacy stalls; Russia cites Lavrov’s remarks and the Novorossiya framing to press for greater concessions. A Polish cyberattack on its energy grid is noted as part of broader strategic pressure. Frontlines are not reported as collapsing, and ISW notes no confirmed major Russian advances on January 14.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#cross-border-attacks #isw #peace-plan

world4 months ago•13 min saved

Iran Protests Push Regime to the Edge of Fragility

Protests across Iran are the most serious domestic challenge to the Islamic Republic, met with unprecedented force and an internet blackout; while authorities say activity is under control, open-source indicators including security defections, withdrawals, IRGC deployments, possible foreign militias, simultaneous protests in cities and rural areas, rising security casualties, leaks, and harsh framing signal mounting instability and the possibility of regime change, though several indicators are only partially tripped or unobserved and the outcome remains uncertain. The regime relies on the LEC, Basij, IRGC, and Artesh to suppress unrest, and forecasts about the regime's fate remain uncertain given evolving factors and potential external action.

via Institute for the Study of War|

#iran #isw #protests

world-news1 year ago•1 min saved

Russia Intensifies Efforts to Seize Donetsk Oblast

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has intensified its military offensive in southeastern Ukraine, capturing several settlements near Vuhledar and advancing in the Velyka Novosilka area. Since September 2024, Russian forces have gained over 1,100 square kilometers in the region, exploiting vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses. The offensive aims to encircle Velyka Novosilka and close pockets of Ukrainian forces around Kurakhove, marking a significant shift from the previous stalemate.

via Euromaidan Press|

#donetsk-oblast #isw #military-offensive

international-relations2 years ago•2 min saved

"Russia Bolstering Military in Anticipation of NATO Conflict: Reports"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russia's focus on reviving its economy may be in preparation for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, potentially on a shorter timeline than previously thought. Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent remarks and actions suggest a willingness to risk ties with the country's elite in order to stabilize the economy for potential future conflict. This comes amid reports from Estonia's foreign intelligence service indicating that Russia is preparing for a confrontation with the West, with the Kremlin possibly anticipating a conflict with NATO within the next decade.

via Business Insider|

#international-relations #isw #nato

international-relations2 years ago•3 min saved

"Putin Accelerates Preparations for Conflict with NATO, Analysts Warn"

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin is potentially preparing for a conflict with NATO on a shorter timeline than previously thought, with signs indicating financial, economic, and military preparations for a large-scale conventional conflict. Tensions between Russia and NATO have been high since the invasion of Ukraine, and recent statements from Putin and warnings from NATO officials have raised concerns about the possibility of a war between Russia and the alliance. The ISW also highlighted structural moves within the Russian military to support the war in Ukraine while building capabilities for a potential full-scale conflict with NATO.

via Newsweek|

#international-relations #isw #nato