All articles tagged with #isw
ISW says Putin used a staged July 3 meeting to push an exaggerated narrative of Russian gains (notably Kostyantynivka) with footage possibly AI-altered; there were no frontline advances on July 4. Ukraine continued long-range strikes against Russian oil/energy infrastructure, while Russia launched a limited salvo of Iskander-M and Kh-59 missiles plus 86 drones at Ukraine.
ISW says Putin used a staged July 3 meeting with senior Russian commanders to push exaggerated battlefield gains that clash with available evidence: 64 settlements and about 621.7 square kilometers seized or infiltrated in 2026 (20 settlements and ~30.4 sq km in June), far from the claimed numbers. Distances cited from key cities are not supported by geolocated evidence, and the seizure of Kostyantynivka remains unsubstantiated according to Ukrainian sources. ISW warns footage from the MoD and others may be AI‑generated to bolster a cognitive warfare narrative. Meanwhile Ukraine continues long‑range strikes into Russia with no confirmed front‑line advances on July 4, and Russia’s broader goals of a buffer zone and rapid Donetsk breakthrough remain unmet, with costly gains.
ISW analysis shows Russian territorial gains in Ukraine have collapsed this year, with front-line advances stalling and Ukraine's drone-enabled long-range strike campaign disrupting Russian logistics and fuel supplies; Kyiv reports heavy Russian casualties in June while pushing for limited gains, and Moscow signals openness to mediation but remains locked in combat as oil revenues fall and fuel shortages appear.
ISW says Russia is expanding and building bases along its northern NATO border to support potential future force projection after the Ukraine war ends, though near-term ground offensives remain unlikely as most combat power is still in Ukraine. Once constructed, the bases could shorten Moscow’s timetable to mass troops at NATO’s frontier, prompting NATO to maintain high readiness.
ISW warns Russia may launch an Oreshnik IRBM at Ukraine within 24–48 hours as Moscow shows military posturing on Russia Day while confronting battlefield setbacks. Despite Russian gains around Kostyantynivka, analysts say a rapid breakthrough is unlikely; Russia is reportedly building five long-range drone launch sites near Belarus to boost strikes. Ukrainian forces have advanced in the Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka area and Oleksandrivka direction, while Russia attacked Ukrainian oil infrastructure and mounted a large night drone campaign (117 drones).
ISW’s June 11 assessment flags Ukrainian forces continuing to interdict bridges and ground-logistics links between occupied Kherson and Crimea, while Russian authorities in Sevastopol struggle with gasoline shortages likely tied to Ukrainian strikes on logistics and energy infrastructure. Ukraine is leveraging a drone advantage and expanding middle-range strikes, contributing to higher Russian battlefield casualties and weakening Moscow’s recruitment. Russia is building and expanding bases along its northern NATO border to bolster future force projection, though ISW judges near-term ground operations unlikely. Moscow’s MoD is accused of cognitive warfare to justify claims of progress; Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure persist, and Russia responded with Iskander missiles and drones. Ukrainian gains in the Oleksandrivka direction are noted, reflecting ongoing, multi-domain pressure on Russian forces.
Zelensky told The Guardian that Russia is losing the initiative on the battlefield with heavy casualties, but the front remains fluid and could shift day by day. He said Ukraine’s position has improved and cited Kyiv’s gains in 2026, while ISW has noted slow Russian advances and Ukrainian counteroffensives, and Zelensky expressed hope for negotiations to end the war.
Putin rejected Zelensky’s ceasefire offer at SPIEF and reiterated a protracted-war victory narrative, claiming battlefield progress that ISW says is inconsistent with visible gains. Ukraine has intensified long-range strikes and battlefield interdiction that hinder Russian logistics and naval assets, while Russian advances remain largely stagnant. Putin touted economic strength despite fuel shortages and rising debt, and repeatedly referenced the Alaska Summit to justify limited concessions. A localized ceasefire around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was brokered to permit repairs, and Ukraine continues to press operations in occupied areas. Overall, ISW assesses Putin’s battlefield claims as overstated and Ukraine as gaining the initiative in several sectors.
ISW’s June 1, 2026 assessment shows the Russian spring–summer offensive stalled: Russian infiltrations totaled about 40.6 square kilometers Dec 2025–May 2026, while territory under Russian control shrank by roughly 281 square kilometers; overall 2026 gains are only about 7.9% of 2025’s pace. The battlefield remains interspersed and difficult to quantify. Putin is reportedly resisting defense-spending cuts despite economic warnings, while Ukrainian drone strikes and mid‑range actions hinder Russian rotations; Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk direction and continue striking Russian logistics and oil infrastructure.
ISW’s May 31, 2026 assessment says Ukraine’s mid-range strikes are disrupting Russian ground lines of communication across the theater (from occupied Luhansk to Crimea), Ukraine may be widening drone strikes on Russian training grounds in occupied Ukraine, Russia accuses Ukraine of striking the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and neither side reported confirmed advances in the past day. Russian forces reportedly launched 229 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
Russia captured just 14 km² of Ukrainian territory in May—the slowest monthly gain in years—while Ukraine regained ground for the first time since 2023, aided by expanded drone use and mounting Russian losses; analysts say the front has slowed into a wide gray zone with a shift toward small-group incursions rather than large offensives, and both sides continue heavy fighting.
ISW says Putin has likely formed a false perception of Ukraine battlefield progress due to heavily exaggerated maps from Russia’s high command, citing a leaked April MoD map in western Zaporizhzhia that ISW could not corroborate and which fits a pattern of overstated advances going back to 2025 around Kupyansk. The report suggests Belousov ordered an accelerated tempo near Kupyansk to align reality with these claims. It also notes Moscow’s reinforcement of air defenses amid a growing Ukrainian drone campaign, ongoing Ukrainian strikes in Russian rear areas, and Sweden’s pledge to send 36 Gripen jets to Ukraine, alongside Kyiv’s expanding glide bomb and long-range strike capabilities. Overall, Russia’s 2026 battlefield pace remains far slower than 2025, despite Kremlin rhetoric and ambitious goals.
Western nations dismiss Russia’s warning for foreigners to evacuate Kyiv as signs emerge that Ukraine is regaining battlefield momentum, with analysts from the Institute for the Study of War suggesting the war’s character may be shifting in Kyiv’s favor, even as Moscow promises systematic strikes and air defenses remain a priority.
ISW’s May 15, 2026 assessment notes Putin portraying Russia’s economy as strong despite clear strain, while Zelensky warns of Russia reconnoitering near Kyiv. Sanctions relief paired with slowed Patriot interceptors could raise the threat of missile strikes on Ukraine. A Russian state poll shows a small rebound in Putin’s approval. The two sides exchanged 250 prisoners as part of a 1,000-for-1,000 deal. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced near Kharkiv and Kostyantynivka; Russia launched missiles and drones overnight, while Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure in Ryazan Oblast, naval assets in Dagestan, and aircraft in Krasnodar Krai.
ISW says Russia has failed to make significant operational progress in the past year, while Ukraine has regained territory across the front—including parts of Kupiansk and major gains in the south—driven by Ukrainian counteroffensives and long-range strikes. The May ceasefire lacked enforcement mechanisms, suggesting it won’t hold without stronger monitoring, and Moscow’s capacity for large-scale offensives remains constrained ahead of Victory Day.