Hormuz Struggle: US Navigation Gains, Iran’s Missile Upgrades and Militia Strategy

ISW-CTP’s Iran Update notes that US-led efforts to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are yielding some results, with higher vessel traffic and oil flow underscoring Iran’s growing difficulty in blocking commercial transit. The report also cites Russia’s covert support for Iran’s development of ramjet-powered supersonic cruise missiles, which could enhance Iran’s strike capabilities. Iran appears to be pursuing two Iraqi-militia tracks—discreetly storing weapons under PMF control and building a smaller, ideologically loyal cadre—while Hezbollah in Lebanon is reportedly training Assadist insurgents to destabilize Syria and protect Iran’s logistics. A September 1 missile strike on Jordan reportedly failed about half the time, suggesting degradation of longer-range capabilities. Iran continues to pressure regional partners to curb US involvement and may consider expanding coercion to undersea infrastructure if feasible.