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Bubblemaps

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Nine linked Polymarket accounts rake in $2.4M on Iran-war bets, sparking insider-trading concerns
business9 days ago

Nine linked Polymarket accounts rake in $2.4M on Iran-war bets, sparking insider-trading concerns

A 60 Minutes Overtime investigation found nine connected Polymarket accounts profiting roughly $2.4 million on Iran-war related bets with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets, suggesting possible insider trading in a growing class of prediction markets. Bubblemaps analysts say luck can’t explain the pattern, and the report notes ongoing investigations and enforcement efforts while Polymarket says it flags and acts on suspicious activity and cooperates with authorities. The piece also highlights broader concerns about nonpublic information affecting bets on military outcomes and potential national security implications.

Polymarket Iran bets net near $1M, drawing insider-trading scrutiny
business2 months ago

Polymarket Iran bets net near $1M, drawing insider-trading scrutiny

CNN reports a Polymarket trader has earned nearly $1 million since 2024 by making well-timed bets predicting US and Israeli actions against Iran, including bets before October 2024 strikes and June 2025 airstrikes, with an 83% win rate overall and 93% on bets over $10,000. Experts say the pattern—on-chain, anonymous activity on an offshore platform—raises insider-trading concerns, prompting new rules from Polymarket and ongoing regulator scrutiny of prediction markets like this.