Gulf oil could rebound quickly after Hormuz reopening, but scars linger
Goldman Sachs says a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore Gulf oil quickly, with roughly 70% of lost output back in 3 months and about 88% in 6 months, after April’s estimated 14.5 mb/d loss. However, ongoing damage to energy infrastructure, limited Gulf tanker capacity, and complexities around restarting wells could slow the final recovery and leave lasting market scars if hostilities resume; Ras Laffan LNG facilities in particular may require years to recover.