Brazil’s 2026 Election Threatens EU Trade Deal and Deepens US Ties
Brazil’s October 1 presidential election pits incumbent Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls showing a tight race that could reshape global trade alliances. A Bolsonaro victory risks reversing environmental protections and aligning Brazil with US protectionism, jeopardizing the recently provisional EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Conversely, a Lula win preserves current diplomatic ties but faces ongoing friction over agricultural quotas and antimicrobial standards. The outcome determines whether Brazil pivots toward Washington or maintains its European partnership amid rising geopolitical tensions.