Russia expands long-range drone network to press western Ukraine and possibly NATO
Russia is expanding long-range drone launch sites along the Ukraine border with Belarus—reportedly 59 rails at 10 sites, each capable of housing over 1,000 drones—to enable larger drone salvos and the use of jet-powered Geran-4/5 strikes up to 900–1,000 km, potentially reaching western Ukraine and, if decided, NATO territory. Moscow is moving some bases west to protect drone infrastructure and may leverage the Rassvet satellite network for higher-precision strikes. A Banderol loitering munition crash in Moldova underscores cross-border risk. The UN reports July 2026 civilian casualties at record highs from missiles and drones, while Ukraine notes ongoing drone campaigns targeting Russian energy assets; ISW frames these actions as Phase Zero measures to shape future NATO provocations, and suggests NATO might consider air-defense agreements with Ukraine regardless of Moscow's intent.