The Quiet Threat: How China Could Coerce Taiwan Without War
Eyck Freymann argues the greatest danger to Taiwan isn’t a full-scale invasion but China’s gray-zone coercion—economic quarantines and controls that could sever Taiwan’s links to global trade while avoiding overt military conflict. The article urges the United States to deter a crisis, not just a war, by four pillars: political deterrence (deeper ties with Taiwan and a core coalition of allies), military readiness with asymmetric capabilities, strategic modernization (including nuclear and AI-enabled tools), and economic deterrence (an avalanche-decoupling approach and an economic security framework to rebalance dependencies). It also emphasizes planning for nonmilitary crisis management—evacuations, resupply, and resilient supply chains—so Washington can signal resolve without triggering panics, and it warns that a successful gray-zone strategy could icily reshape regional/global order if not countered with coordinated alliance action.