
Prediction markets go pro as trader edge narrows
A Yale-led study of $13.76B in Polymarket trades finds roughly 3% of accounts captured 27% of profits, and as Wall Street liquidity grows, prices should become more accurate and mispricing opportunities rarer, likely shrinking the edge for most traders—perhaps below 1%—though niche traders and hedgers can still find value and markets may become more useful for data and risk management.
