Bitcoin surged more than 5% to around $75,000 after a wave of leveraged short liquidations, with the move aided by macro pressures from oil and Fed-rate-cut expectations, and bolstered by Strategy STRC's ATM program driving heavy BTC buying.
Coinbase predicts that macroeconomic factors will drive the direction of digital asset markets following the bitcoin halving, citing increased geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, and rising national debts as key influences. The report notes that previous halvings have historically kickstarted bull markets, but this cycle, the growth of investors using bitcoin as a macro hedge has reduced volatility. The correlation of altcoins to bitcoin underscores BTC's anchor role in the space, while the approval of spot exchange-traded funds has created a bifurcated pool of investors, with some viewing bitcoin as a speculative asset and others as a hedge against geopolitical risk.
Coinbase's research report suggests that historical precedent indicates a potential positive impact on Bitcoin's performance before and after the upcoming halving event, which is expected in mid-April, due to reduced supply of new BTC. However, the report also emphasizes the influence of non-crypto factors such as macroeconomic conditions on Bitcoin's price. It notes that the recent rally in Bitcoin was driven more by excitement over the prospects of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than by the halving. Additionally, the report highlights the high amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders and the potential impact of U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy on risk assets.