NFL Week 3: Computer Model Favors Lions, 49ers Amid Travel Disruptions
SportsLine’s 10,000-simulation model identifies the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers as top Week 3 NFL bets, with the Lions favored to cover against the Jets and the 49ers expected to win by double digits against the Cardinals. The model, which has a 53-41 record on top-rated picks since 2024, highlights travel impacts, including the first-ever NFL Rio Game in Brazil, where the Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs despite being the designated home team. The Chargers and Bills face a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, with Buffalo as 7-point favorites, while the Seahawks are 7-point favorites over the Commanders, who are expected to be without Jayden Daniels for an extended period due to an elbow injury. The model also notes that the 49ers are the only team ranked in the top five in both scoring offense and defense, while the Cardinals are in the bottom 10 in both rushing and passing offense. The model’s top-rated picks have returned over $7,000 for $100 players since inception, and it has identified five A-rated spread picks for Week 3. The article also mentions that the Lions have a 12-3 ATS record following a loss since 2023, with an 80% cover rate, the best in the NFL.