U.S. oil export surge faces a ceiling as Gulf bottlenecks bite amid Iran conflict
Record U.S. oil and product exports are rising as Middle East disruption fuels demand, with combined shipments hitting 12.9 million barrels per day and crude exports nearing 5 million bpd in April. Yet analysts warn Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity will cap growth, estimating a weekly crude ceiling around 6.5 mbpd and a monthly limit near 5.5 mbpd, with some suggesting only 1–2 mbpd of additional crude is feasible. Strong product exports and plunging diesel inventories keep pressure on refiners, but sustained gains depend on new export capacity. The Iran war could permanently reshuffle trade flows, even as the White House promotes energy dominance and projects like GulfLink advance slowly.