Suez Canal May Offer Partial Shelter If Bab al-Mandeb Is Blocked
Houthis’ threat to blockade Bab al-Mandeb is already disrupting Saudi crude exports to Asia, with two loaded tankers turning away from the Red Sea. A potential Suez Canal detour around Africa could keep some oil flowing, but it would lengthen voyages to about 54 days, raise freight and fuel costs, and require tankers or lightering adjustments—so it would not fully replace the direct Red Sea routes. Asia’s refiners face higher import costs and longer lead times, while substitutions from Russia, the US, or Venezuela are limited. If both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb stay under pressure, oil prices and freight rates could remain elevated.”,