Hormuz Oil Traffic Rises Under MoU, Then Dips as Pact Expires
Oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz surged to about 6.1 million barrels per day (374 million barrels in 60 days) during the US-Iran MoU, but remains far below pre-war levels of around 15 million bpd, averaging 2.3 million bpd in April–June and reaching only about 40% of the 2025 peak. The MoU expired without a peace deal amid ongoing attacks on commercial vessels, with five ships attacked in the past week and one seafarer killed on the Minoan Dignity, bringing total seafarer deaths to at least 18 since the war began. Transit activity in the strait dropped to 73 vessels Aug. 10–16 from 91 the prior week, while Brent crude hovered around $91.93 per barrel as markets weigh the risk to flows and a durable diplomatic framework.