Brexit Decade: Trade Shifts, Investment Slump, and Uncertain Growth
A decade after the UK left the EU, the economic picture is mixed: goods trade with the EU has lost variety and volume, especially for exports, while services exports to the EU and elsewhere have risen; business investment has underperformed pre-Brexit trends; the pound’s volatility has pushed up import costs but helped exporters; some trade deals yielded only marginal gains; estimates of the overall hit vary (roughly 3–8% of potential GDP or around 6–8% per capita), and experts disagree on how much Brexit alone caused the gap given global shocks. The coming years will hinge on policy choices about future UK-EU relations and whether deeper ties or re-joining are pursued.