China’s EV Market Shifts from Adoption to Routine Replacement Across Four Distinct Sectors
China’s electric vehicle transition is no longer a single national trend but four distinct market cycles. Urban buses have moved from initial adoption to routine replacement, with nearly 70% of the 680,000 electric bus fleet deployed before 2020. Passenger cars now account for over half of new sales, with nearly 70% of battery-electric models priced competitively against conventional vehicles. Heavy trucks are accelerating rapidly, reaching 29% of sales in 2025, driven by high-utilization commercial routes. Conversely, intercity coaches remain at 10% electrification, largely because high-speed rail has captured the majority of long-distance passenger demand.