The Complex Dynamics of Ukraine-Russia Relations.
Ukraine's success in its counter-offensive against Russia risks splitting its friends in West Europe, who fear Russian defeat, from its eastern allies who yearn for it. The consensus behind sanctions, arms deliveries, financial support, and willingness to bear the costs of the war rests on the belief that the war is winnable and that Ukraine is winning it. However, if Ukraine's offensive stalls or produces only modest gains, many in the "old West" may flinch at the prospect of another year of fighting, leading to a land-for-peace deal, which Ukrainians will not accept.