US economy shows signs of slowing down, raising fears of impending recession.
Campbell Harvey, the developer of the yield-curve indicator, has warned that a recession is coming and could start this month, lasting two to three quarters. He blames the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, calling a recession a "self-inflicted wound" by the central bank. Harvey also warned about the effect of the Fed's tightening campaign on the banking sector, which has seen a string of failures among regional banks. The yield curve has remained inverted throughout the year, and Harvey's research shows that a recession has always followed past inversions.