Warsh’s Fed debut: markets watch independence and easing-bias cues

All eyes will be on Kevin Warsh as he presides over his first FOMC meeting, with markets broadly penciling in a hold on rates at 3.5%–3.75% and futures not pricing a move until 2027. The key is whether Warsh signals continued independence and removes the last “easing bias,” especially as inflation risks mount. A dismissal of inflation risk or a renewed easing bias could raise concerns about political influence, given Trump’s push for lower rates, while clear independence and restraint would support a stable trajectory for inflation expectations.