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IMF warns inflation risk could derail global recovery
world3 days ago

IMF warns inflation risk could derail global recovery

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook warns that renewed Middle East tensions could push inflation higher and disrupt supply chains, with global inflation projected to rise to about 4.7% this year before easing to 3.9% in 2027, while global growth slows to around 3% before rebounding to 3.4% in 2027. The euro area is expected to keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% target until 2028, suggesting more rate hikes could be on the horizon for major central banks, even as AI-driven gains support some economies. The report also highlights risks to energy and food security if disruptions persist, underscoring that inflation remains the primary threat to a smoother global recovery.

via Financial Times|
#central-banks#global-economy#global-inflation
Gold slips on rate-hike fears, posting a 13-year quarterly rout
markets11 days ago

Gold slips on rate-hike fears, posting a 13-year quarterly rout

Gold fell into the second half of 2026, marking its worst three-month period since 2013 as inflation fears and potential U.S. rate hikes weigh on non-yielding assets; futures and spot prices declined, silver dropped as well, while analysts from Amundi say gold still serves as a diversification tool amid a volatile macro backdrop and ongoing central-bank diversification away from dollars.

via CNBC|
#central-banks#gold#gold-futures
Gold Dips 29% From Peak as Dollar Strength and Fed Bets Rise
markets14 days ago

Gold Dips 29% From Peak as Dollar Strength and Fed Bets Rise

Gold has corrected about 29% from its January all-time high of $5,589/oz, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of multiple Fed rate hikes as inflation resurges. The metal briefly slipped below $4,000 in late June, finding short-term support near $3,960–$3,970 before bouncing to about $4,050. Banks remain optimistic on gold’s longer-term outlook, citing ongoing central-bank buying and concerns over fiat currency debasement, with year-end targets cited up to $6,300.

via FXLeaders|
#central-banks#federal-reserve#gold
Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Shock, but Inflationary Hangover Persists
business23 days ago

Hormuz Reopening Eases Supply Shock, but Inflationary Hangover Persists

Even as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the immediate energy disruption cools, analysts warn the war's economic damage is baked in: higher energy and fertiliser costs will keep inflation elevated for months, with pass-through to consumers delayed, while central banks stay hawkish and growth remains at risk as countries rethink energy security and freight flows.

via CNBC|
#business#central-banks#energy-security
Gold Returns Home: Central Banks Repatriate Reserves as Global Risk Rises
world26 days ago

Gold Returns Home: Central Banks Repatriate Reserves as Global Risk Rises

Global central banks are repatriating gold and diversifying storage away from London and New York amid rising geopolitical tensions and distrust in the traditional vaults; a World Gold Council survey shows fewer banks store gold in BoE or NY Fed vaults, with France, India and others relocating substantial bullion domestically or to alternative locations, signaling a shift in reserve management even as gold solidifies its role as a top reserve asset.

via Financial Times|
#central-banks#geopolitics#gold
Relief rally broadens as Iran deal boosts sentiment and tech leads
business27 days ago

Relief rally broadens as Iran deal boosts sentiment and tech leads

Stocks climbed to new highs as the U.S.–Iran framework boosted sentiment, with the Dow at a fresh record and tech shares leading gains while oil eased and yields pulled back ahead of a busy week of central-bank decisions; SpaceX jumped about 20% on its IPO, Nvidia planned a $20 billion debt sale, and Fox agreed to buy Roku for roughly $22 billion, underscoring a broad risk-on backdrop.

via CNBC|
#business#central-banks#iran-deal
Warsh’s Fed debut: markets watch independence and easing-bias cues
central-banks28 days ago

Warsh’s Fed debut: markets watch independence and easing-bias cues

All eyes will be on Kevin Warsh as he presides over his first FOMC meeting, with markets broadly penciling in a hold on rates at 3.5%–3.75% and futures not pricing a move until 2027. The key is whether Warsh signals continued independence and removes the last “easing bias,” especially as inflation risks mount. A dismissal of inflation risk or a renewed easing bias could raise concerns about political influence, given Trump’s push for lower rates, while clear independence and restraint would support a stable trajectory for inflation expectations.

via Financial Times|
#central-banks#easing-bias#federal-reserve
OECD warns prolonged Gulf energy shock could trigger global slowdown
global-economy1 month ago

OECD warns prolonged Gulf energy shock could trigger global slowdown

An OECD report warns that a prolonged disruption to energy flows from the Gulf into 2027 could push global growth to about 2.1% this year and 1.8% next, creating a “dark scenario” with higher inflation and rates and potential output scar. If the crisis ends sooner, growth could stay around 2.8% this year and 3.1% in 2027, with central banks able to keep policy rates relatively steady, though the risks remain significant.

via Financial Times|
#central-banks#global-economy#gulf-energy-crisis
Forced sovereign liquidations could ignite gold’s next long-term bull run, says SPI's Innes
business1 month ago

Forced sovereign liquidations could ignite gold’s next long-term bull run, says SPI's Innes

SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes argues the gold selloff was a liquidity crisis driven by forced sovereign sales amid the oil shock, not a collapse in demand. As inflation cools and growth slows, central banks may ease policy, potentially setting up a new long-term gold bull run with gold serving as monetary insurance in a fractured, underinvested global economy—an outlook reinforced by China’s reserve diversification strategy.

via KITCO|
#business#central-banks#commodities
Markets ride the Bliss trade on borrowed state backstops
economy2 months ago

Markets ride the Bliss trade on borrowed state backstops

Harvard economist Gita Gopinath argues that stock markets are buoyed by a 'Bliss trade'—the belief that governments will sustain large, lasting support via debt and central-bank backstops—despite energy shocks and rising public debt. The disconnect between rich markets and riskier bonds suggests fragility, and she calls for crisis response that is targeted, fiscally sustainable, and coordinated to avoid a long-term drag on growth.

via Financial Times|
#bliss-trade#central-banks#economy
markets2 months ago

Trump weighs Iran proposal as earnings parade shapes markets

Investors wrestle with headlines as Trump reportedly dislikes Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz, a move that’s kept oil prices firm and central banks on alert while a busy earnings week unfolds with Verizon, Domino’s, Visa and others due to report; OpenAI reportedly missed internal revenue targets fueling questions about its spending ahead of an IPO, BP posted higher first-quarter profit on energy price gains, and the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but signaled possible future hikes, underscoring a market environment shaped by geopolitics and corporate results.

via Investing.com|
#central-banks#earnings#iran
Europe stocks edge higher as earnings roll in and Iran talks loom
business2 months ago

Europe stocks edge higher as earnings roll in and Iran talks loom

European shares edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited the U.S. response to Iran peace proposals and digested quarterly results from firms like Novartis, BP and Barclays; Brent crude climbed toward $111 a barrel helping energy names, while Bayer faced U.S. Supreme Court scrutiny over Roundup. Market attention also turned to upcoming policy decisions from the Fed, ECB and BoE amid inflation and growth concerns.

via CNBC|
#business#central-banks#earnings