Consumer spending defies low confidence, exposing gap between poll sentiment and economic behavior

Key points

• Consumer confidence fell 6.7 points in September to 81.9, the lowest since 2014, yet personal spending increased by 0.9% in August.
• Households offset lower income growth by reducing their savings rate to 4.1%, indicating a disconnect between pessimistic sentiment and actual spending behavior.
• Kari Butcher, Burson’s Americas Chair, warns that treating poll results as forecasts leads to category errors, such as cutting inventory when demand remains strong.
• CNN’s generic ballot polls show Democrats ahead 52% to 42%, but Butcher notes this measures preference, not the specific actions of customers or investors.
• Polling methodology significantly impacts results; YouGov found that varying assumptions about likely voters could shift the Democratic lead in House races from 6 to 16 points.
• Burson’s research indicates that 48% of Americans lose confidence in companies gradually, meaning overall reputation scores may not reflect slipping trust until it is too late.

Background

This analysis follows recent reports showing US consumers continuing to spend despite inflation and President Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. It also comes amid a challenging national political climate where Republicans are reallocating campaign funds to competitive battlegrounds, and polls show narrow margins in key Senate races like Maine. The disconnect between economic sentiment and behavior has been a recurring theme as voters increasingly blame the administration for rising costs, yet spending patterns remain resilient.

Why it matters

Business leaders and policymakers risk making consequential errors by equating stated opinions with future actions. Misinterpreting poll data can lead to unnecessary inventory cuts, misguided corporate stances, or inaccurate predictions of consumer loyalty. Understanding the gap between sentiment and behavior is crucial for navigating the 2026 midterms and adjusting economic strategies in a volatile environment.

What to watch

As the midterms approach, analysts and businesses should pair poll data with behavioral metrics such as search trends, sharing patterns, and purchase history. Leaders are advised to ask what specific decisions a poll provides enough evidence for, rather than treating single snapshots as definitive forecasts. Continued monitoring of both stated intentions and actual actions will be necessary to accurately gauge market and political shifts.