Milder Q4 2025 GDP Gain Highlights Consumer Strength Amid Investment Slowdown

BEA’s third estimate shows U.S. real GDP rising 0.5% at an annual rate in Q4 2025, revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate due mainly to weaker investment. Growth was supported by higher consumer spending and investment but weighed down by declines in government spending and exports, with imports also subtracted. Private services-producing activity rose 2.3%, while government (-7.8%) and private goods-producing (-1.8%) fell; wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance were key contributors. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 1.8%; real gross output fell 0.5%. Corporate profits climbed about $247 billion in Q4. For 2025 overall, real GDP rose 2.1% and personal income grew 4.9%, with gains across states; Hawaii benefited from Maui wildfire settlement transfers, while DC lagged. The release notes that the October 2025 government shutdown shaved roughly 1.0 percentage point from Q4 growth and that October CPI data were imputed. Next BEA update is April 30, 2026.