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Gdp

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economy2 days ago

Milder Q4 2025 GDP Gain Highlights Consumer Strength Amid Investment Slowdown

BEA’s third estimate shows U.S. real GDP rising 0.5% at an annual rate in Q4 2025, revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate due mainly to weaker investment. Growth was supported by higher consumer spending and investment but weighed down by declines in government spending and exports, with imports also subtracted. Private services-producing activity rose 2.3%, while government (-7.8%) and private goods-producing (-1.8%) fell; wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance were key contributors. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 1.8%; real gross output fell 0.5%. Corporate profits climbed about $247 billion in Q4. For 2025 overall, real GDP rose 2.1% and personal income grew 4.9%, with gains across states; Hawaii benefited from Maui wildfire settlement transfers, while DC lagged. The release notes that the October 2025 government shutdown shaved roughly 1.0 percentage point from Q4 growth and that October CPI data were imputed. Next BEA update is April 30, 2026.

via U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)|
#bea#economy#gdp
Inflation sticks as growth slows ahead of Iran-triggered oil shock
economy28 days ago

Inflation sticks as growth slows ahead of Iran-triggered oil shock

The Commerce Department revises Q4 2025 GDP to a 0.7% annualized gain (half the prior estimate), with real final sales to private purchasers up 1.9% in Q4. Core inflation remains stubborn, with the January core PCE at 3.1% year over year and 3.7% annualized over the last three months. Consumer spending barely grew in January (+0.1%), while the saving rate rose to 4.5%. The labor market shows resilience (January job openings up 396,000 and a 4.2% openings rate), but analysts warn the Iran conflict could push energy prices higher, slowing growth in Q2 and complicating Fed policy, even as AI investment is eyed as a potential future boost not yet evident in Q4 2025.

via Axios|
#consumerspending#economy#fedpolicy
US GDP slows to 0.7% in Q4 as Iran risk looms over inflation
business29 days ago

US GDP slows to 0.7% in Q4 as Iran risk looms over inflation

The Commerce Department shows US GDP expanding at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q4, a downward revision from earlier estimates and well below Q3’s pace, dragged down by a government shutdown and weak exports; inflation remains a concern with oil-price pressures tied to the Iran conflict likely to push prices higher and complicate Fed policy, while the labor market remains fragile.

via CNN|
#business#economy#gdp
economy29 days ago

US GDP Growth Slows to 0.7% in Q4 2025 as Spending Shifts Emerge

Real GDP rose at a 0.7% annual rate in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3, helped by consumer spending and investment but dragged by government spending and exports; imports fell, and 2025 real GDP increased 2.1%. The October government shutdown and missing CPI data affected the release, with BEA’s next update scheduled for April 9, 2026 and data tables available online.

via U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)|
#bea#economic-growth#economy
Trump’s ‘greatest economy’ claim meets the data
economy1 month ago

Trump’s ‘greatest economy’ claim meets the data

BEA data show 2025 real GDP rose 2.2% (Q4 at 1.4% annualized), a slowdown from 2024, with the Oct–Nov 2025 shutdown subtracting about 1 percentage point from Q4 growth. Job growth was weak in 2025 (~15,000 payrolls per month), though January 2026 added 130,000, and unemployment stood at 4.3%; federal employment fell 327,000 since Oct 2024. A Supreme Court ruling curtailed Trump’s tariffs, which now face exemptions and hinge on a new 10–15% rate; the average tariff is about 9.1%. Public opinion remains skeptical (about 39% approve the economy vs 59% disapprove), suggesting the data undercut the president’s boast about the economy.

via Euronews.com|
#bea#economy#gdp
Q4 GDP Slows as Federal Spending Drops and AI Investment Reshapes the Picture
economy1 month ago

Q4 GDP Slows as Federal Spending Drops and AI Investment Reshapes the Picture

Fourth-quarter GDP grew slower than expected as a 16.6% drop in federal spending—part of it tied to a government shutdown and allegedly caused by Elon Musk’s DOGE-related cuts—dragged overall growth, while consumption was led by healthcare spending; housing and durable goods weakened, and non-residential investment was mixed with AI-related equipment up but other areas soft. Inflation remained stubborn at about 2.9% PCE, complicating Fed policy, and uncertainty remains over tariff policy after a court ruling and the future of the AI-driven investment boom.

via Counterpunch|
#ai-boom#economy#elon-musk
US GDP slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 as shutdown drags growth
business1 month ago

US GDP slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 as shutdown drags growth

US GDP rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q4 2025, undershooting economists’ expectations of about 3%, as disruptions from the government shutdown and softer consumer spending weighed on growth. The CBO estimated the shutdown shaved roughly 1.5 percentage points from Q4 GDP, with most lost output expected to be recovered. AI-related investment and tax cuts are seen as supports for activity later in the year, even as the economy remains uneven and inflation pressures persist.

via The Guardian|
#ai-investment#business#consumer-spending
Markets hold near flat as GDP, PCE data and tariff ruling loom
business1 month ago

Markets hold near flat as GDP, PCE data and tariff ruling loom

U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday ahead of Q4 GDP data and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE), plus a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs; Dow futures fell about 30 points, S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq-100 futures rose ~0.1%. Economists expect Q4 real GDP growth around 2.5% and the PCE price index about 2.8% year over year (core ~3%). Fed minutes show officials split on rate cuts, signaling more evidence inflation must cool. A ruling against tariffs could lift markets, though the White House may reimpose duties later. In recent sessions, the Dow and Nasdaq slipped while oil rose amid U.S.–Iran tensions; Nvidia earnings are due next week.

via CNBC|
#business#fed-policy#gdp