All articles tagged with #bea
New BEA data show the U.S. personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April—the lowest since June 2022—while core consumer spending rose 5.7% year over year and personal income increased 2.5%, meaning households are funding higher living costs by drawing down savings. With the cushion shrinking, the economy looks sturdy on the surface but faces growing strain that could complicate President Trump’s economic agenda even as markets stay energized.
BEA's April 2026 personal income fell marginally (less than $0.1B) while disposable personal income slipped 0.1%; meanwhile personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5%, lifting total outlays by about $114B. Personal saving was $611.7B (2.6% saving rate). Real DPI dropped 0.5% and real PCE increased 0.1%, with the PCE price index up 0.4% (0.2% excluding food and energy). The income decline was mainly due to farm proprietors’ income tied to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, with compensation led by private wages and salaries. Next BEA release is June 25, 2026.
Real GDP rose 1.6% in Q1 2026 (SAAR), revised downward from the 2.0% advance, with gains from exports, investment, consumer spending, and government outlays, offset by higher imports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 2.4%. The PCE price index increased 4.5% (4.4% ex food and energy). Real GDI rose 0.9%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.3%. Corporate profits from current production rose by $40.4 billion in Q1. Revisions to inventories and health-care services partly explain the downgrade; tariff refunds under IEEPA do not affect GDP. Next BEA release is June 25, 2026.
US personal income fell 0.1% in February 2026 (-$18.2B), with disposable income down 0.1% (-$18.3B), while personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% (+$103.2B), boosting total personal outlays by 0.5% (+$106.5B). Personal saving reached $931.5B (4.0% saving rate). The income drop was mainly due to lower personal dividend income and fewer transfer receipts, even as compensation rose. The PCE increase was split between goods (+$58.7B) and services (+$44.5B); real PCE rose 0.1%, and the PCE price index climbed 0.4% (0.4% excluding food and energy). Year over year, PCE prices were up 2.8% (3.0% ex food and energy). BEA notes data revisions and ongoing improvements; the next release is April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
BEA’s third estimate shows U.S. real GDP rising 0.5% at an annual rate in Q4 2025, revised down 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate due mainly to weaker investment. Growth was supported by higher consumer spending and investment but weighed down by declines in government spending and exports, with imports also subtracted. Private services-producing activity rose 2.3%, while government (-7.8%) and private goods-producing (-1.8%) fell; wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance were key contributors. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 1.8%; real gross output fell 0.5%. Corporate profits climbed about $247 billion in Q4. For 2025 overall, real GDP rose 2.1% and personal income grew 4.9%, with gains across states; Hawaii benefited from Maui wildfire settlement transfers, while DC lagged. The release notes that the October 2025 government shutdown shaved roughly 1.0 percentage point from Q4 growth and that October CPI data were imputed. Next BEA update is April 30, 2026.
Real GDP rose at a 0.7% annual rate in Q4 2025, down from 4.4% in Q3, helped by consumer spending and investment but dragged by government spending and exports; imports fell, and 2025 real GDP increased 2.1%. The October government shutdown and missing CPI data affected the release, with BEA’s next update scheduled for April 9, 2026 and data tables available online.
U.S. personal income rose by $113.8 billion (0.4%) in January 2026, with disposable income up 0.9%. Personal consumption expenditures increased by $81.1 billion (0.4%), led by services, while real PCE rose 0.1%. The PCE price index gained 0.3% overall (0.4% ex-food/energy). Personal saving reached $1.05 trillion and the saving rate was 4.5%. The gains were driven by higher compensation, personal dividends, and a January cost-of-living adjustment boosting Social Security benefits. BEA also announced data-release modernization, moving to online interactive tables and discontinuing PDF/Excel releases after February 2026; next release is April 9, 2026.
BEA data show 2025 real GDP rose 2.2% (Q4 at 1.4% annualized), a slowdown from 2024, with the Oct–Nov 2025 shutdown subtracting about 1 percentage point from Q4 growth. Job growth was weak in 2025 (~15,000 payrolls per month), though January 2026 added 130,000, and unemployment stood at 4.3%; federal employment fell 327,000 since Oct 2024. A Supreme Court ruling curtailed Trump’s tariffs, which now face exemptions and hinge on a new 10–15% rate; the average tariff is about 9.1%. Public opinion remains skeptical (about 39% approve the economy vs 59% disapprove), suggesting the data undercut the president’s boast about the economy.
In December 2025, U.S. personal income rose 0.3% to $86.2B, boosting disposable income (DPI) by 0.3% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) by 0.4% (with services up more than goods). Real PCE grew 0.1%, while the PCE price index climbed 0.4% (0.4% ex-food-and-energy, 2.9% year over year). Saving reached $830.8B (3.6% of DPI). The income gains were driven by transfer receipts (including a Maui wildfire settlement) and higher compensation, and personal outlays rose 0.4% to $90.2B. BEA also noted upcoming changes to its data-release formats and schedules, with the next release on March 13, 2026.
BEA revises Q3 2025 GDP to +4.4% (SAAR), up from Q2’s +3.8%, driven by rises in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, with imports higher; real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 2.9%. Industry: private services-producing +5.3%, private goods-producing +3.6%, government -0.3%. Real gross output +3.2% with services leading; PCE inflation at 2.8% (2.9% ex food and energy). Profits from current production rose by $175.6B. The update replaces the prior December release due to a government shutdown; next BEA release is February 20, 2026.
BEA data show the U.S. current‑account deficit narrowed to $226.4 billion in Q3 2025 (about 2.9% of GDP) as primary‑income moved into a surplus, the services surplus widened, and the goods deficit eased. Exports rose to about $1.30 trillion while imports reached $1.53 trillion. Net financial‑account transactions were −$409.9 billion, with sizable increases in assets and liabilities to foreign residents. BEA also announced a March 2026 switch to a single combined release for international transactions and investment position data, with tables accessible via an Interactive Data Application; next releases are scheduled for March 25, 2026 and later in 2026.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3 2024, consistent with the advance estimate, but down from 3.0% in Q2. The growth was driven by consumer spending, exports, and government spending, despite a downturn in private inventory investment. Current-dollar GDP rose by 4.7%, while corporate profits fell by $10.2 billion, contrasting with a significant increase in the previous quarter. Personal income and savings saw downward revisions, with the personal saving rate at 4.3%.
The BEA's report on personal income and spending for February 2024 does not support the need for Fed interest rate cuts, as real income decreased but personal spending surged, and inflation data, particularly the PCE price index, indicates higher inflation than the Fed's target. Additionally, Apartment List reports rent prices have increased for the second consecutive month, and the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hit a new record high, contributing to the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts despite the data not fully supporting it.