Gulf Oil Flows Surge as Iran’s Hormuz Toll Theory Gains Traction

Key points

• Crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war averages of 18 million barrels per day on four days in late September, reaching up to 22.5 million barrels per day.
• Kpler analyst Michelle Brohard suggested Gulf countries may be paying Iran 10-20% of cargo value for safe passage, a theory not independently verified but supported by earlier reports of an IRGC 'toll booth' system.
• The G7 announced the release of 100 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to stabilize markets, though prices remain significantly higher than pre-war levels.
• At least 11 tankers have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since last Monday, including four in the final 48 hours, highlighting the fragility of current export routes.
• Iraq’s state-owned Oil Tanker Company reported its first very large crude carrier transit through the strait in decades, moving two million barrels, while 40% of crude now bypasses Hormuz via pipelines or the Red Sea.

Background

The US-Israel war on Iran began in February 2026, leading to Iranian attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to this week, oil flows had been inconsistent, with US officials citing escort volumes of 15-17 million barrels per day in early September. Recent strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and Houthi attacks in Yemen have intensified regional tensions, while Iran has signaled openness to talks only if US conditions are met.

How outlets are covering it

Al Jazeera highlights the unverified theory that Gulf states are paying Iran a 'toll' for safe passage, citing Kpler’s Michelle Brohard, while noting that Lloyd’s List reported an IRGC 'toll booth' system as early as March. The New York Times emphasizes the physical fragility of these exports, reporting on a surge in drone and missile attacks on tankers and Saudi infrastructure, which threatens the stability of the recent export recovery. Yahoo Finance focuses on the market reaction, noting that oil prices slipped slightly on the news of rising exports and the G7 reserve release, despite the ongoing security risks.

Why it matters

The stability of global energy supplies depends on the security of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a significant portion of world oil and gas exports. If the 'toll' theory is correct, it implies a de facto Iranian control over the waterway despite US military presence. Continued attacks and high insurance rates keep oil prices elevated, impacting global inflation and agricultural costs, while the G7 reserve release attempts to mitigate supply shocks without resolving the underlying geopolitical conflict.

What to watch

Analysts warn that the current export surge may be a 'race to get out' before a potential restart of hot war. The US administration has stated Iran will not be permitted to charge tolls in any future agreement. Market participants will monitor whether freight rates and shipping availability can sustain current export levels, as the 'problem of shipping' may become a more critical bottleneck than the strait itself.