Iran War Might Permanently Reshape China's Oil Demand

Analysts say the Iran war has likely triggered a permanent shift in China’s oil demand, with 200,000–600,000 barrels per day of transportation demand potentially not returning and a permanent loss around 300,000 bpd. Imports could fall about 3.3 million barrels per day this quarter year over year as stockpiling wanes, refinery runs adjust, and export curbs ease. The surge in EV adoption—electric vehicles accounted for roughly 42% of new registrations in April—suggests demand may stay weaker than pre-war levels even when Middle Eastern supply normalizes, a view echoed by the IEA’s forecast of a year-over-year drop in Chinese oil demand and potential global price implications depending on how quickly China re-enters the market.