Oil Market on Edge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten a Summer Spike

Oil prices have stayed below $100 thanks to buffers—China’s reduced imports, record U.S. exports, and SPR releases—but those cushions are fading and inventories are crashing. ING warns that if Strait of Hormuz flows remain constrained into July, Brent could surge to $120–$130 this summer, pressuring Washington to seal a U.S.–Iran deal or risk a triple-digit spike. Brent is expected to average around $110 in July–September, with deficits likely before a recovery later in 2027. The key questions are how long China can tolerate stock draws and how long SPR releases can sustain the market; without a deal and with dwindling buffers, a sharp price spike could materialize this summer.