Ras Laffan Attack Rewrites the Global LNG Outlook

An attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global gas system, ending the glut narrative and signaling a shift to tighter, more volatile LNG markets. The facility accounts for about 20% of global LNG exports, with damage potentially removing 12–13 Mt/year of capacity (~17% of Qatar’s output) and restoration could take 3–5 years, with lasting market implications. Geopolitical risks, shipping constraints, and Hormuz disruptions will bolster prices and promote longer-term contracts and resilience-focused logistics, as Europe and Asia compete for scarce cargoes. A new market equilibrium may not emerge until the early 2030s, with continued pressure on energy access and costs.