DZ Bank flags SpaceX valuation as potentially too rich for execution

DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner initiated coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with a Sell rating and a $100 fair value, signaling roughly 25% downside from recent trading. He warns that SpaceX’s ambitious Space, Starlink and AI businesses are capital-intensive, and the current valuation may outpace near-term execution. In Q2, SpaceX revenue rose 92% to $7.8B and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5B, but quarterly capex reached $18.4B (AI capex $15.8B). After IPO proceeds and a $25B bond, SpaceX sits on about $100B in cash/equivalents. The core question is whether faster growth and moderating capex can translate into cash flow to justify the valuation, with investors watching AI spend, Starlink growth, connectivity margins, operating cash flow, and Starship progress; further financing or share unlocks could tilt the bear case.