OECD warns prolonged Gulf energy shock could trigger global slowdown

TL;DR Summary
An OECD report warns that a prolonged disruption to energy flows from the Gulf into 2027 could push global growth to about 2.1% this year and 1.8% next, creating a “dark scenario” with higher inflation and rates and potential output scar. If the crisis ends sooner, growth could stay around 2.8% this year and 3.1% in 2027, with central banks able to keep policy rates relatively steady, though the risks remain significant.
- OECD warns of ‘dark scenario’ if Gulf energy crisis drags on Financial Times
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- Report: Disruption of Mideast energy supplies into next year would slam global economy 10TV
- OECD warns of global slowdown as U.S.-Iran war stymies economic growth prospects CNBC
- Chief Economists' Outlook: May 2026 The World Economic Forum
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