Brent crude surges past $105 as US weighs Iran strikes and Hormuz attacks spike

Key points

• Brent crude rose approximately 5% to $105.20, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 5.1% to $92.75, driven by geopolitical and weather-related supply risks.
• The Pentagon instructed US Central Command to prepare for potential 'major combat operations' against Iran, with no specific date set but speculation linking timing to the upcoming US midterm elections.
• Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a two-month low, with only seven vessels transiting on Tuesday, following a record 10 attacks on commercial vessels between September 28 and October 4.
• Hurricane Isaias prompted Shell and Chevron to curtail production and evacuate personnel, removing more than 500,000 barrels per day from the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of the storm's landfall.
• European and Asian stock markets fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 dropping 1.06% and the Nikkei falling 1.4%, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and pushed government bond yields to multi-year highs.
• The International Energy Agency confirmed it would accelerate the release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves, prioritizing diesel, though some analysts argued this supply was already anticipated by the market.

Background

This escalation follows a period of heightened tensions since February 2026, when the US and Iran began a conflict that has continued without a formal peace deal. In late September, President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that major strikes might resume after the November midterm elections. Previous internal Iranian power struggles between pragmatists and hardliners have complicated diplomatic efforts, while recent US rhetoric has emphasized military strength over negotiation.

How outlets are covering it

Euronews and The Guardian emphasized the political dimension, highlighting reports that the Pentagon is preparing for strikes to project strength before the US midterm elections, with an Israeli official noting the possibility of action before the vote. CNN and OilPrice.com focused more heavily on the physical supply constraints, detailing the record number of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate impact of Hurricane Isaias on US refining capacity. While all outlets agreed on the sharp price increase, Euronews noted that even supporters of the strikes doubted they would force Iran to the negotiating table, whereas OilPrice.com pointed out that producers are taking risks to ship oil despite the attacks due to a lack of alternative routes.

Why it matters

The spike in oil prices threatens to reignite inflation, potentially forcing central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates further, which could stifle economic growth. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy, risks a prolonged supply crisis if attacks continue, while the hurricane threatens to reduce US refining capacity at a time when global reserves are already low. This volatility creates significant uncertainty for energy-dependent economies and could impact consumer fuel prices globally.

What to watch

Markets will closely watch for any official announcement regarding US military action against Iran, particularly as the midterm elections approach. The International Energy Agency is expected to detail the specific schedule for the accelerated release of 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. Additionally, the impact of Hurricane Isaias on US Gulf Coast production will be monitored in the coming days, with potential further supply disruptions if the storm intensifies. Investors will also await the European Central Bank's policy meeting minutes for clues on future interest rate decisions in response to rising energy costs.