ChatGPT vs SpaceX: Could SPCX drop below $90 by year-end?

SpaceX's SPCX has fallen below its IPO price of $135 and trades around the low- to mid-$100s as investors weigh growth potential against dilution risk from IPO lock-ups. The Twelfth Magpie cites ChatGPT predicting a 35% chance SPCX ends up under $90 by year-end, but the author argues a 60–70% probability is more plausible given anticipated lock-ups that could release up to 40% of shares by December and a roughly 31% drop in the past month. Potential catalysts—government launch contracts, Starlink growth, and AI-infrastructure chatter—could shift sentiment, but expiration of lock-ups and ongoing volatility pose near-term headwinds. The author suggests waiting for volatility to settle and lock-ups to expire before considering a buy, while acknowledging SpaceX's long-term upside through Starlink and other ventures.