Micron’s Boom Meets a $57B Selloff Amid Worsening Memory Shortage

Micron Technology issued the strongest quarterly revenue guidance in its history—about $50 billion in Q4 revenue with an ~86% gross margin and a forward P/E around 6—yet its stock fell, wiping roughly $57 billion from its market value as memory supply tightness worsens. The company’s contract book, consisting of 16 five-year take-or-pay agreements worth about $100 billion in minimum commitments, provides multi-year revenue visibility even as an Intel-backed memory startup adds competitive pressure. Tight DRAM/NAND supply is expected to persist beyond 2027, with Chinese HBM signals reflecting broader scarcity rather than MU sales; management also signaled higher capital returns to shareholders, underscoring a long-term AI memory thesis despite near-term volatility.