Goldman warns oil could near $120 if Gulf disruption endures

Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude could average about $90 a barrel in Q4 if Gulf exports normalize, but if shipments remain disrupted through July and Gulf production remains constrained (about 500,000 barrels per day scarred), Brent could approach $120 and WTI around $83. Prices surged after peace-talk doubts, Brent hitting $108.50 intraday and trading around $106–$107, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked; analysts warn of broader economic fallout, potential US export restrictions, and longer-term supply scarring, with Morgan Stanley echoing upside risks amid ongoing supply tightness.