Prediction Markets Skeptical Bessent’s Moves Will Lower Treasuries’ Yields

Prediction-market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stay around current levels or rise in 2026 rather than fall significantly, despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts. Kalshi traders assign a 56% chance the 10-year ends 2026 at or above 4.75%, with just a 27% chance above 5%; Polymarket traders put two-in-three odds on the yield crossing 4.8% at some point in 2026. With the yield near 4.7% mid-day and debt surpassing $40 trillion, along with buyback tweaks and potential use of the General Account, traders see any declines as likely temporary.