All articles tagged with #kalshi
Traders on Kalshi assign only about a 38% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by July 1 (normal = seven-day average of 60 ships/day per IMF PortWatch), with odds rising to 60% for Aug 1; the White House denies any formal framework with Iran despite reports of a draft MOU, and sentiment has cooled since weekend highs that had July odds near 50%.
Trump endorsed federal oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, urging the CFTC to set rules so the new markets can thrive amid a growing clash with state regulators who accuse the platforms of flouting gambling laws; the CFTC, led by Trump appointee Michael Selig, has backed the industry in lawsuits against New York, Illinois and Minnesota, and Trump Jr. has ties to Kalshi and Polymarket through advisory roles and investments.
The U.S. government has taken equity stakes in nine private companies, including IBM, part of a broader push to diversify government holdings in tech. Traders on Kalshi are betting IonQ (32% odds) could be the next stake recipient, with Anduril Industries at 31% and Micron Technology at 28%. IonQ isn’t on the initial list but its stock jumped after the news, Anduril recently valued at about $61B after a new funding round, and Micron shares rose sharply in 2026 due to AI-driven memory demand. Stakes are only confirmed by an official announcement or verified disclosure.
Aubry Bracco clinches Survivor 50 and a $2 million prize after four seasons, using a patient, adaptable strategy that blindsided Cirie Fields and Ozzy Lusth and formed a strong final trio; in a THR interview she details her game-planning and final pitches, addresses Kalshi spoilers and online backlash, and confirms she won’t play again, marking an emotional capstone to a long Survivor journey.
Senators on a Senate Commerce subcommittee signaled interest in federal standards for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to address risks and consumer protections, despite strong pushback from industry players; the discussions occur as House Republicans explore insider-trading restrictions and other related regulatory steps, signaling potential legislation on prediction markets in the near term.
Kalshi traders now assign about a 40% probability of stagflation (high inflation with higher unemployment) by end-2026, up from 11% earlier, as April CPI hits 3.8% and unemployment sits at 4.3%; the odds of a soft landing are down to ~21%, with different views on inflation and outcomes from other markets like Polymarket.
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation led by Coatue, signaling strong investor interest in prediction markets as the platform expands beyond retail users toward institutional traders, with about 2 million monthly users, roughly $178 billion in annualized trading volume and over $1.5 billion in annualized revenue; the company plans more data integrations and block trades for corporates and hedge funds, while regulators and competitors pose ongoing challenges.
Traders on Kalshi are pricing in about a 73% odds that the SEC will end mandatory quarterly earnings reporting in favor of semiannual reporting by April 2027, with earlier bets fluctuating around January 2027; the proposal opens a 60-day public comment period and, while historically the rulemaking takes at least a year, markets are still betting on a faster outcome.
Prediction-market traders see a larger wave of tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025 (the information sector logged 447,000 layoffs in 2025). Kalshi assigns a 92% probability of more layoffs in 2026, and Polymarket puts the odds at 87%. Through March 2026, information-sector layoffs reached 178,000. Coinbase announced a 14% workforce reduction, citing AI and crypto weakness; other major tech layoffs followed (Meta, Block, Amazon). Overall information-sector employment has fallen from a pandemic peak of about 3.1 million to just under 2.8 million in March. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship.
Traders on Kalshi think U.S. WTI crude could reach around $120–$127 per barrel in 2026, with more than a 50% chance of testing roughly $127 and about a 63% chance to cross $120, even as prices hover above $113 and Brent hits post‑war highs. Sentiment has narrowed from earlier bets on prices above $150, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics amid the Iran ceasefire, but a price surge remains a focal point for market participants.
Ahead of Apple’s earnings, Kalshi traders expect the company to touch on its Creator Studio and streaming efforts, potential AI integrations (including a Gemini model via Apple Intelligence), and issues around China tariffs. They assign high odds to mentions of China (98%) and tariffs (96%), with more uncertain bets on Gemini AI (27%), wearable glasses (24%), and foldable devices (9%), amid broader speculation about Apple’s AI leadership and hardware roadmap.
Kalshi traders are betting Alphabet's upcoming earnings call will spotlight artificial intelligence, with bets on AI-related mentions like Wiz climbing to about 81% earlier in April before easing, suggesting markets expect discussions of Wiz, DeepMind, Gemini and other AI initiatives.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing in a Powell exit from the Federal Reserve Board soon—30% by June on Kalshi and 87% between May 15–22 on Polymarket—with Powell set to address reporters after the Fed meeting; his departure hinges on the DOJ inquiry, which was dropped, and Warsh’s nomination advancing in the Senate; if Powell delays, he could stay through two more meetings into August, though his governor term runs to 2028.
A U.S. soldier’s indictment for allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket about Maduro’s capture has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets, prompting lawmakers to push for guardrails, potential bans for government officials, and stronger enforcement by the DOJ and CFTC, as Kalshi and other platforms tighten anti‑insider trading measures amid broader regulatory momentum.
Prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket let people wager on entertainment outcomes, but insiders with privileged information can exploit the markets. Kalshi says it bans insiders, yet enforcement is uneven, leaving Hollywood staff and studios to tighten rules while offshore platforms keep the field largely unregulated.