All articles tagged with #kalshi
A federal judge granted the CFTC's request for a temporary restraining order, pausing Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi over alleged illegal sports bets and reinforcing the federal regulator's authority to oversee prediction markets.
A federal judge ruled in favor of federal regulators (the CFTC) in a legal clash with Arizona over Kalshi and other predictive-market operators, upholding federal oversight of these platforms and their operation in the state.
The White House circulated an internal memo warning federal employees that using nonpublic government information to place wagers on prediction markets (and related platforms) could constitute insider trading and violates federal ethics rules, a warning prompted by scrutiny of high-volume trades linked to the Iran war. The memo emphasizes that such misuse is a serious offense and will not be tolerated; officials noted there is no public evidence tying any White House staff to trades, but lawmakers have pressed for tighter regulation as the CFTC’s stance shifts and Congress considers additional bills.
The White House warned staff not to use non-public information to place bets on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, referencing federal ethics guidelines; the notice followed press reports about insider-informed betting around geopolitical events and adds fuel to the ongoing debate over market regulations and potential investigations.
White House staff were emailed on March 24 to avoid using nonpublic government information to place bets on online prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket, with officials warning that such activity is a criminal offense and a serious ethics violation; staff are advised to consult the White House Counsel’s Office if they have questions, a move that followed media coverage and White House statements emphasizing that trading on nonpublic information will not be tolerated.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour argues on Axios that sportsbooks are designed to push winners out and lure losers with promos, profiting from built-in margins, while prediction markets simply connect buyers and sellers with Kalshi taking a fee as facilitator; in effect, the house is the bettor in prediction markets. Regulation—potential state rules and a future Supreme Court decision—could determine how these markets are overseen.
U.S. prosecutors in New York met with Polymarket to discuss how existing insider-trading laws might apply to suspicious bets, though no accusations have been made. The piece notes notable bets and ongoing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, including Polymarket’s US relaunch after a prior ban and Kalshi’s regulatory challenges, as markets grow in popularity and proponents push for stronger integrity rules.
Rolling Stone reports that the CFTC has softened its crackdown on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, even as unusual trades tied to Trump-era Iran actions drew scrutiny, including a reported $1.5 billion bet on oil and S&P futures just before Trump's post. Lawmakers are calling for investigations into possible insider trading; Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened rules, and the PREDICT Act was introduced to bar insiders from trading on political events. The piece also notes a broader enforcement slowdown at the CFTC and SEC during Trump’s tenure and that there’s been no announced probe into the Iran trades.
A bipartisan group of senators introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Markets Act of 2026 to bar lawmakers, the president, congressional staff and other federal officials from trading on insider information through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill would define insider information as nonpublic information that a reasonable investor would view as material to a prediction-market contract, signaling Washington’s intensified effort to curb potential conflicts of interest as these platforms gain prominence. The move follows other related proposals and ongoing scrutiny of prediction markets from lawmakers and regulators.
A bipartisan push in Congress would ban prediction markets on elections, sports, government actions, and military moves, with the STOP Corrupt Bets Act led by Sen. Merkley and a House version by Rep. Raskin. Competing bills seek to ban or restrict similar contracts, citing corruption and insider trading risks, while proponents argue regulation via the CFTC is sufficient. Industry players like Kalshi and Polymarket have signaled reforms or safety measures, and a Government Accountability Office study is being considered as part of the legislative package.
A group of Democratic lawmakers introduced the STOP Corrupt Bets Act to ban prediction-market bets on elections, government actions, war, and sports, arguing such bets threaten democracy and invite corruption; the bill would expand restrictions, push gambling regulation back to the states, require a GAO study on insider trading, and follows Kalshi and Polymarket strengthening insider-trading protections.
A bipartisan Senate bill would bar federally regulated platforms from offering sports wagers on online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, a move that would deal a major blow to these platforms amid broader regulatory fights with states; supporters say it protects consumers and state sovereignty, while critics argue it would push activity offshore, a stance underscored by recent actions from state regulators in Arizona and Nevada and ongoing CFTC oversight.
Kalshi will preemptively block professional athletes and political candidates from trading on its markets, extending existing rules and partnering with Integrity Compliance 360 to screen participants, as prediction markets face heightened regulatory scrutiny and ongoing debates over sports betting and insider information.
A bipartisan bill introduced by Senators Schiff and Curtis would bar U.S.-regulated prediction-market exchanges (including Kalshi and Polymarket) from listing contracts tied to sporting events and would ban casino-style games on these platforms, signaling a push to keep sports betting under state control as regulators clash with the CFTC and amid recent enforcement actions against Kalshi.
Traders are increasingly placing bets on climate-related events through Kalshi and Polymarket, turning climate risk into a booming market with Kalshi’s climate contracts trading about $239 million last year and projected to exceed $1.2 billion in 2026; the broader industry could generate roughly $3 billion in revenue this year and up to $10 billion by 2030. Bets span events like hurricanes, carbon-tax outcomes, and Greta Thunberg’s arrest, prompting debate over ethics and oversight as regulators such as the CFTC and several states consider tightening rules. The sector also features notable ties to Trump Jr. serving as an adviser to both platforms, highlighting its high-profile growth despite ongoing controversy.