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Kalshi

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Gas Prices Likely to Stay Elevated Through Election Day, Kalshi Traders Say
business1 day ago

Gas Prices Likely to Stay Elevated Through Election Day, Kalshi Traders Say

Kalshi traders now price a high probability that U.S. gas prices will stay elevated through the election, with a 75% chance prices exceed $3.50 per gallon on Election Day and 39% above $3.75, up from pre-crisis levels as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and higher oil prices keep pressure on prices. The national average sits around $3.84/gal (AAA), and a roughly 43% chance remains for prices to top $4.60 this year, though new all-time highs are not expected.

via CNBC|
#aaa#business#election-day-2026
Goldman Sachs tightens employee bets in prediction markets
finance2 days ago

Goldman Sachs tightens employee bets in prediction markets

Goldman Sachs has instructed employees to limit their prediction-market bets to sports and entertainment due to compliance risks tied to material non-public information, with breaches potentially costing a job. The internal memo underscores banks' regulatory concern as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket expand into financial bets on events such as elections and rates, drawing scrutiny over profits from advance knowledge; Kalshi is even exploring a multibillion-dollar funding round.

via Financial Times|
#compliance#finance#goldman-sachs
Polymarket bets on a trust-first US comeback with tighter oversight
business3 days ago

Polymarket bets on a trust-first US comeback with tighter oversight

Polymarket is launching a US re-entry backed by a high-profile compliance push, including former DOJ/FBI officials and Coinbase alumni, and via the QCEX acquisition to operate under CFTC rules. The USD-based platform will be more tightly regulated and smaller in scope than its international counterpart, as executives emphasize “trust is the product.” The effort faces scrutiny over past offshore marketing practices and faces competition from Kalshi as US market volumes rise.

via Yahoo Finance|
#business#compliance#kalshi
LeBron James eyeing Cavaliers finale as career comeback heats up
sports5 days ago

LeBron James eyeing Cavaliers finale as career comeback heats up

Rumors swirl that LeBron James may return to the Cleveland Cavaliers to finish his career, with Windhorst and Stein signaling Cleveland as the frontrunner and betting markets like Kalshi showing about 55% odds; the piece frames the move as a potential happiness-driven finale and outlines how his late-career role could fit with a contending Cavs lineup.

via Fox News|
#cleveland-cavaliers#kalshi#lebron-james
World Cup Ignites Record Volumes in Prediction Markets
business7 days ago

World Cup Ignites Record Volumes in Prediction Markets

The 2026 FIFA World Cup sparked a dramatic surge in prediction-market activity in June, with Kalshi posting over $31 billion in notional volume and Polymarket surpassing $10.8 billion on its international exchange, while the new platform Rothera traded about $2 billion. U.S. platforms saw substantial volumes (Kalshi >$3.5B, Polymarket >$3.5B) and rising open interest (Kalshi >$1B, Polymarket ~$.4B), underscoring the World Cup as a major test for market integrity and regulatory scrutiny as platforms prepare for continued high-volume periods.

via CNBC|
#business#kalshi#polymarket
Prediction-market bets spur fake streams: Spotify wipes 500k plays from Earrings
technology8 days ago

Prediction-market bets spur fake streams: Spotify wipes 500k plays from Earrings

Spotify removed 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd’s hit Earrings after an internal probe found artificial listening tied to bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket; the artist isn’t believed to be involved, and Spotify says it detects and mitigates manipulated streams and doesn’t pay related royalties. The manipulation followed a spike in the chart driven by prediction-market activity (Kalshi had given Todd a 2.5% chance to top the chart), and there are ongoing reviews by Kalshi and Polymarket, with Spotify asking them to remove Spotify logos to avoid implying a partnership.

via Mashable|
#kalshi#polymarket#prediction-markets
Kalshi Alert Sparks Spotify Fraud Scrub of Malcolm Todd Streams
music8 days ago

Kalshi Alert Sparks Spotify Fraud Scrub of Malcolm Todd Streams

Spotify confirmed fraud after a Kalshi trader flagged suspicious streaming data for Malcolm Todd's single “Earrings,” removing over 500,000 streams and dropping the track from #1 to #4 on the Global Daily chart. Kalshi had paid out bets based on the flawed data, while Spotify said it detects and mitigates manipulated streams and does not pay royalties; both Spotify and Kalshi are reviewing the matter to understand chart integrity and betting implications.

via Stereogum|
#earrings#kalshi#malcolm-todd
Spotify Finds Fake Streams, Forcing Market Updates and a Trader’s Exit
technology9 days ago

Spotify Finds Fake Streams, Forcing Market Updates and a Trader’s Exit

Spotify confirmed artificial streaming after a Kalshi trader flagged botting in Spotify-related markets; the company culled over 500,000 fake streams and adjusted its charts, moving Malcolm Todd’s song from #1 to #4. Kalshi then removed Spotify branding from related markets and said it’s coordinating with Spotify and Polymarket as investigations continue; Polymarket says it has not identified any immediate manipulation. The episode underscores vulnerabilities in chart-based prediction markets, prompting trader Caleb Davies to swear off such markets for now.

via WIRED|
#kalshi#polymarket#prediction-markets
Kalshi bets Mamdani-backed NYC candidates go 2-for-3 in congressional primaries
business18 days ago

Kalshi bets Mamdani-backed NYC candidates go 2-for-3 in congressional primaries

Prediction-market traders on Kalshi assign roughly 54% odds that Mamdani-backed Brad Lander (NY-10) and Claire Valdez (NY-7) win, with Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY-13) as the underdog; a 28% chance all three win and 20% only Lander wins, while in NY-12 Kalshi favors Micah Lasher (74%) amid AI-regulation ad battles around Alex Bores; outcomes are verified by the NY State Board of Elections.

via CNBC|
#business#kalshi#lander
politics19 days ago

Poll finds public wary as political betting markets surge

A POLITICO-Public First poll shows 44% of U.S. adults believe betting on election outcomes should be illegal, signaling public discomfort with the rapid growth of political prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Proponents say these markets provide real-time information and hedging tools, while critics warn that wealthy bets could threaten democracy; about $700 million has already traded on 2028 election markets, and younger adults show more interest, even as regulators and lawmakers scrutinize the industry.

via Politico|
#election-betting#kalshi#politics
Kalshi Eyes IPO Path After Surging to Over $2B in Annualized Revenue
business22 days ago

Kalshi Eyes IPO Path After Surging to Over $2B in Annualized Revenue

Kalshi, an eight-year-old prediction-market platform, surpassed $2 billion in annualized revenue driven by sports-event bets (NBA and World Cup), prompting informal talks with investment banks about a future public offering; Kalshi is exploring bank integrations to reach institutional clients, but a listing is not expected until late next year or 2028.

via The Information|
#business#fintech#ipo-talks