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Polymarket

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Google News briefly displayed Polymarket bets; Google says it was a mistake
tech6 hours ago

Google News briefly displayed Polymarket bets; Google says it was a mistake

Polymarket betting links briefly appeared in Google News next to credible outlets, linking to live bets on world events. Google says the listing was an error and it’s no longer surfacing in News. The incident raised questions about how Polymarket/Kalshi data may appear alongside news, though Google has existing partnerships with Polymarket/Kalshi for Google Finance and it’s unclear whether those deals are related to the News results.

via The Verge|
#google#kalshi#news
White House warns staff against using nonpublic information for prediction-market bets
politics14 hours ago

White House warns staff against using nonpublic information for prediction-market bets

The White House circulated an internal memo warning federal employees that using nonpublic government information to place wagers on prediction markets (and related platforms) could constitute insider trading and violates federal ethics rules, a warning prompted by scrutiny of high-volume trades linked to the Iran war. The memo emphasizes that such misuse is a serious offense and will not be tolerated; officials noted there is no public evidence tying any White House staff to trades, but lawmakers have pressed for tighter regulation as the CFTC’s stance shifts and Congress considers additional bills.

via CNN|
#insider-trading#kalshi#note-top5-tags-requested-adjusting-to-five-kalshi-and-polymarket-are-included
Fresh Polymarket Wallets Cash In on Iran Ceasefire Bets
business3 days ago

Fresh Polymarket Wallets Cash In on Iran Ceasefire Bets

An analysis of blockchain data shows about 50 newly created Polymarket wallets placed large yes bets ahead of a US–Iran ceasefire announcement, earning some traders hundreds of thousands of dollars even as the contract remained disputed; the pattern echoes earlier profitable bursts around political events and fuels ongoing debates about insider information and the need for regulation in prediction markets.

via The Guardian|
#blockchain#business#ceasefire
politics3 days ago

New Polymarket Wallets Profit on Iran Ceasefire Bets Ahead of Trump’s Remarks

Newly created Polymarket wallets placed highly timed Yes bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Trump’s post signaling a two-week deal, with some accounts cashing out for hundreds of thousands of dollars even as the contract was labeled disputed and subject to ongoing regulatory debate over insider information in prediction markets.

via Politico|
#ceasefire#iran#politics
Polymarket Bets Tilt Against Musk in OpenAI Lawsuit
market-news3 days ago

Polymarket Bets Tilt Against Musk in OpenAI Lawsuit

Crypto bettors on Polymarket are pricing a 37% chance that Elon Musk will win his lawsuit against OpenAI’s Sam Altman, down from about 87% earlier; the California trial set for April 28 centers on Musk’s claim that OpenAI abandoned its founding nonprofit principles and seeks damages reportedly between $79 billion and $134 billion, with Musk saying any proceeds would go to charity. OpenAI contends Musk knew of and agreed to the for‑profit shift as early as 2017, and most bettors (roughly 63%) expect Altman to win, highlighting ongoing tensions stemming from OpenAI’s origins and its Microsoft partnership.

via TipRanks|
#elon-musk#lawsuit#market-news
Prosecutors Examine Polymarket Bets for Potential Insider Trading
business12 days ago

Prosecutors Examine Polymarket Bets for Potential Insider Trading

U.S. prosecutors in New York met with Polymarket to discuss how existing insider-trading laws might apply to suspicious bets, though no accusations have been made. The piece notes notable bets and ongoing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, including Polymarket’s US relaunch after a prior ban and Kalshi’s regulatory challenges, as markets grow in popularity and proponents push for stronger integrity rules.

via Gizmodo|
#business#insider-trading#kalshi
Iran Bets Stir Questions Over CFTC’s Stance on Prediction Markets
politics14 days ago

Iran Bets Stir Questions Over CFTC’s Stance on Prediction Markets

Rolling Stone reports that the CFTC has softened its crackdown on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, even as unusual trades tied to Trump-era Iran actions drew scrutiny, including a reported $1.5 billion bet on oil and S&P futures just before Trump's post. Lawmakers are calling for investigations into possible insider trading; Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened rules, and the PREDICT Act was introduced to bar insiders from trading on political events. The piece also notes a broader enforcement slowdown at the CFTC and SEC during Trump’s tenure and that there’s been no announced probe into the Iran trades.

via Rolling Stone|
#cftc#insider-trading#iran
politics16 days ago

Senate targets insider trading in prediction markets with new bill

A bipartisan group of senators introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Markets Act of 2026 to bar lawmakers, the president, congressional staff and other federal officials from trading on insider information through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill would define insider information as nonpublic information that a reasonable investor would view as material to a prediction-market contract, signaling Washington’s intensified effort to curb potential conflicts of interest as these platforms gain prominence. The move follows other related proposals and ongoing scrutiny of prediction markets from lawmakers and regulators.

via Politico|
#insider-trading#kalshi#politics
Markets Under Scrutiny as Iran War News Triggers Big Bets on Polymarket and Oil Futures
business17 days ago

Markets Under Scrutiny as Iran War News Triggers Big Bets on Polymarket and Oil Futures

Amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, large, timing-sensitive bets on Polymarket and premarket moves in oil and S&P 500 futures have drawn insider-trading scrutiny, with analysts flagging suspicious patterns like newly created accounts netting millions before key events; lawmakers push restrictions (BETS OFF Act), while Polymarket and Kalshi respond with tightened rules and guardrails amid broader calls for regulatory action.

via Al Jazeera|
#business#insider-trading#iran-war
Mysterious pre-decision trades loom over Trump's war moves
politics17 days ago

Mysterious pre-decision trades loom over Trump's war moves

Axios analyzes data showing suspicious pre-announcement trading around Trump’s war decisions, including a sudden oil futures spike before a pause and a burst of Polymarket bets predicting a strike on Iran. While the timing is striking and could imply insider knowledge or coordinated trading, authorities say there’s no evidence that Trump or officials were involved, and the piece places the patterns in a broader context of reduced enforcement against insiders under the administration.

via Axios|
#financial-markets#insider-trading#iran-war
Polymarket Iran bets net near $1M, drawing insider-trading scrutiny
business18 days ago

Polymarket Iran bets net near $1M, drawing insider-trading scrutiny

CNN reports a Polymarket trader has earned nearly $1 million since 2024 by making well-timed bets predicting US and Israeli actions against Iran, including bets before October 2024 strikes and June 2025 airstrikes, with an 83% win rate overall and 93% on bets over $10,000. Experts say the pattern—on-chain, anonymous activity on an offshore platform—raises insider-trading concerns, prompting new rules from Polymarket and ongoing regulator scrutiny of prediction markets like this.

via CNN|
#bubblemaps#business#insider-trading