SpaceX Faces $25B Short Bet as Earnings Loom and Lockups Draw Near

SpaceX (SPCX) is facing about $25 billion in bearish bets with roughly 32% of its tradable float short ahead of its first earnings on Aug 4. The bear case is driven by staged lockups that will release 911.5 million shares unconditionally on Aug 6 and a second tranche of 455.8 million shares contingent on the stock hitting a price target, fueling potential supply and short covering dynamics. Musk pushed back on X, arguing that firms with large short interests rarely survive; analysts warn a short squeeze could occur if earnings surprise to the upside, but cautious traders may wait for post-earnings supply to settle. SPCX traded around $123.54 on July 21, down about 40% from its June high.