Warsh's forward guidance debate rekindles bets on a September rate move

Markets awaited explicit forward guidance from Fed infuser Kevin Warsh at his Jackson Hole speech, and Blinder said Warsh’s remarks hinted at a possible September rate hike as the economy strengthens but inflation remains stubborn. Traders boosted odds of a hike to about 60% after the talk. Warsh outlined the data he watches—growth in corporate earnings, capex, asset prices, and consumer incomes—while reaffirming the Fed’s focus on the PCE inflation gauge. Observers noted Warsh avoided promising specifics, while upcoming CPI and wholesale price data ahead of the September meeting are set to influence the policy path.