Tag

Forward Guidance

All articles tagged with #forward guidance

economy-and-policy1 month ago•18 min saved

Forecasts Over Promises: Posen Urges Clear Fed Outlook Amid Sticky Inflation

Peterson Institute economist Adam Posen argues it’s acceptable for the Fed to avoid committing to a path via forward guidance, but it must publish a credible forecast about inflation and the economy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that inflation remains the top concern and that the FOMC may need to raise rates again, possibly twice this year, though timing could slip into December/January due to elections. Posen warns that without a forecast, discussions become vague, and he anticipates inflation will persist, implying more tightening may be needed than markets currently expect.

via Yahoo Finance|

#economy-and-policy #fed-policy #forecast

markets1 month ago•19 min saved

Warsh's forward guidance debate rekindles bets on a September rate move

Markets awaited explicit forward guidance from Fed infuser Kevin Warsh at his Jackson Hole speech, and Blinder said Warsh’s remarks hinted at a possible September rate hike as the economy strengthens but inflation remains stubborn. Traders boosted odds of a hike to about 60% after the talk. Warsh outlined the data he watches—growth in corporate earnings, capex, asset prices, and consumer incomes—while reaffirming the Fed’s focus on the PCE inflation gauge. Observers noted Warsh avoided promising specifics, while upcoming CPI and wholesale price data ahead of the September meeting are set to influence the policy path.

via Yahoo Finance|

#alan-blinder #fed-policy #forward-guidance

economy2 months ago•6 min saved

Fed Chair Warsh sticks to lean messaging as markets react

Fed chair Kevin Warsh plans to maintain a pared‑back, guidance‑light communications strategy despite a market sell‑off spurred by limited policy details; aides say the lean approach reduces missteps and preserves inflation credibility, even as inflation remains above 2% and markets price in potential September rate moves and balance‑sheet actions, with a Jackson Hole speech expected to outline the framework.

via Financial Times|

#bond-market #economy #federal-reserve

economy2 months ago•328 min saved

Fed's Next Move Remains Murky as Inflation Signals Blur

The Federal Reserve has offered few clues on the future path of interest rates as inflation shows signs of slowing, but geopolitical tensions and AI-era spending complicate the outlook. A June CPI drop, driven by lower energy prices and a war‑related energy spike earlier this month, has dimmed the odds of an imminent hike, yet markets remain split about whether the Fed will hold or raise at today’s 2 p.m. ET decision. Chair Warsh’s move away from forward guidance is fueling uncertainty and possible volatility, with experts warning that persistent inflation could reassert itself if energy prices stay elevated or AI infrastructure spending sustains price pressures. The decision and Warsh’s post‑meeting remarks will likely set the tone for policy expectations in the near term.

via CNN|

#economy #fed #forward-guidance

economy3 months ago•4 min saved

Fed official backs Warsh-led overhaul of investor communications

A top Federal Reserve official, Chris Waller, endorses Kevin Warsh's plan to overhaul how the Fed communicates with markets, arguing that 2020–21 forward guidance restrained rate decisions and contributed to inflation; Warsh has formed a task force to revamp communications with findings due by the end of 2026, while the Fed has moved away from traditional dot plots and clearer forward guidance in its policy signals.

via Financial Times|

#christopher-waller #economy #federal-reserve

economy3 months ago•18 min saved

Warsh's inflation stance unsettles markets, reshaping Fed-rate bets

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at a Sintra gathering, said inflation risks have eased and reiterated a commitment to price stability, but offered no forward guidance on the Fed’s rate path. He outlined plans to shrink the Fed’s roughly $6.7 trillion balance sheet and stressed that policy will remain data-driven. May’s PCE rose 4.1% year over year (core 3.4%), keeping inflation concerns alive and leaving markets pricing in at least one 25bp rate hike by year-end, with some economists forecasting a sequence of hikes as inflation remains stubborn.

via Yahoo Finance|

#balance-sheet #economy #federal-reserve

economy3 months ago•7 min saved

Fed Chair Warsh Goes Quiet as Markets Seek Clues

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has begun his tenure by offering little public guidance, pushing markets to rely on other officials for hints about policy while warning that forward guidance can trap policymakers; investors still price in potential rate moves as inflation remains above target and upcoming data looms, signaling a transition in the Fed's communication approach.

via Politico|

#economy #fed #forward-guidance

business3 months ago•7 min saved

Warsh Signals Fewer Fed Forecasts Could Shake Up Stock Markets

New Fed chair Kevin Warsh argues the Fed has over-relied on financial-market pricing and should provide less forward guidance, hoping to force markets to reflect real-time data. While this could improve policy clarity, it would likely add near-term uncertainty and possibly push investors from stocks into bonds, creating more volatility in equity markets.

via The Motley Fool|

#business #federal-reserve #financial-markets

economy3 months ago•3 min saved

Warsh's Quiet Chairmanship Keeps Fed Path Unclear

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is declining to offer forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the future path of interest rates as inflation remains above the target. His opaque “reaction function” suggests multiple possible trajectories—from July rate hikes to keeping policy unchanged indefinitely—dependent on how inflation evolves and supply pressures fade, with public remarks and incoming data expected to clarify the stance.

via Axios|

#economy #federal-reserve #forward-guidance

business3 months ago•6 min saved

Warsh's push to erase Fed guidance could lift borrowing costs and boost volatility

Kevin Warsh’s move to trim or drop the Fed’s forward guidance could raise U.S. borrowing costs and fuel bond-market volatility, as traders price in greater policy uncertainty after he declined to publish his dot plot and signaled changes to how the Fed communicates policy. Investors warn that less transparency may widen swings in Treasuries and lift yields, though some say the unpredictability could help curb inflation by tightening financial conditions.

via Financial Times|

#business #federal-reserve #forward-guidance

business3 months ago•21 min saved

Warsh urges markets to lead the Fed, scrapping forward guidance

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh argues that financial markets should inform monetary policy rather than the Fed guiding markets, calling for the removal of forward guidance so markets form an independent view of the rate path; analysts warn the approach could heighten volatility around data releases and that rate hikes could still occur if inflation remains stubborn, with markets already pricing in moves.

via Yahoo Finance|

#business #federal-reserve #forward-guidance

economy3 months ago•2 min saved

Warsh Era Brings Leaner Fed Statement, No Forward Guidance

New Fed chair Kevin Warsh unveils a shorter, more factual FOMC statement with no forward guidance and no vote details, signaling a shift in Fed communication; the statement notes a unanimous decision and describes the economy as expanding at a solid pace, marking a regime change in how the central bank communicates its policy.

via CNBC|

#economy #federal-reserve #fomc

business3 months ago•24 min saved

Warsh’s Fed era kicks off with reforms and a fixed 2% target

Warsh opens his chair tenure with a push for clearer Fed communications and internal debate, reiterates the 2% inflation target, unveils five task forces to reform operations and policy framing, and signals a reduced reliance on forward guidance and the dot plot, while rates remain unchanged and markets weigh the path ahead amid ongoing political dynamics surrounding the Fed.

via CNBC|

#business #federal-reserve #forward-guidance

business5 months ago•2 min saved

Fed dissenters push back on signaling future rate cuts amid uncertainty

Fed regional presidents Kashkari, Logan, and Hammack dissented from the post‑meeting statement, objecting to language that signaled a future easing move and to an easing bias amid uncertainty and ongoing inflation; Governor Miran again dissented in favor of a rate cut. The 8‑4 vote held rates for a third consecutive time, with inflation at 3.2% core in March and Middle East tensions adding upside risks to the outlook.

via CNBC|

#business #federal-reserve #fomc

financetechnology2 years ago•4 min saved

"Palo Alto Networks Stock Plunge Sparks Market Concerns"

Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) reported strong quarterly results with revenue growth and a bottom-line beat, but the stock is crashing due to cautious forward guidance and CEO Nikesh Arora's observation of "spending fatigue" among cybersecurity customers. The company's outlook fell short of Wall Street's expectations, leading to a 28% drop in stock price. Analysts are divided on PANW stock, with some downgrades and concerns about investor consternation, while others maintain a Strong Buy rating with a $391.82 average price target. Overall, given the cautious outlook and management's lack of confidence, it may not be the ideal time to consider a position in PANW stock.

via Yahoo Finance|

#cybersecurity #earnings #financetechnology