Supreme Court faces landmark test on prediction markets

New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to decide whether prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under federal oversight by the CFTC or can be blocked by state gaming laws, marking the first time the nationwide dispute has reached the high court. The Third Circuit upheld a district court’s block on New Jersey’s action against Kalshi, while Nevada’s Ninth Circuit created a circuit split by allowing state regulation of such markets as sports betting. Kalshi has faced shutdowns in several states, regulators are pushing federal rules, and the Trump administration has signaled support for a federally governed framework; if the Court agrees to hear the case, a decision could come by next summer with broad implications for regulatory authority and consumer protections.