Trump-Influenced 2027 Social Security COLA Could Beat Medicare Premiums Again

The 2027 Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment is expected to rise about 3.4%–3.6% (roughly 3.5% on average) per independent estimates, potentially making it the sixth‑largest COLA in 35 years. Importantly, this year’s COLA would likely outpace the projected increase in Medicare Part B premiums (about 3.25% to $209.50/month), marking the first time since 2023 that the COLA could exceed Part B growth. While the upraise would help restore purchasing power, it won’t fully recover decades of erosion caused by inflation and rising Part B costs. Inflation drivers cited include tariffs and, notably, the Iran conflict affecting oil prices. Still, a “silver lining” could help tens of millions of retirees retain more of their cost‑of‑living adjustment in 2027.