SpaceX Faces Valuation Test as Anthropic’s $120B Deal Hinges on 90-Day Exit Clauses

Key points

• SpaceX Q3 revenue reached $14.6 billion, beating estimates by $1.6 billion, with EPS of $0.35.
• Anthropic’s IPO filing revealed a compute deal with SpaceX worth up to $120.5 billion through 2029.
• The deal includes a 90-day cancellation clause, raising concerns about revenue durability if alternatives emerge.
• SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment now accounts for 40% of revenue, up from 32% last quarter.
• Analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus, with an average price target of $250.34, implying 74% upside.

Background

SpaceX’s stock has been volatile since its June IPO at $135, dipping to $105 before recovering. The company’s massive capital expenditures, including $19.6 billion in Q3, have raised questions about payback periods. The broader AI market has seen recent volatility, with investors scrutinizing infrastructure costs and customer concentration risks.

How outlets are covering it

TipRanks highlights investor Yiannis Zourmpanos’s caution, noting that while SpaceX’s compute business is growing, the stock’s valuation leaves little margin for error if Anthropic reduces spending. Yahoo Finance (Motley Fool) emphasizes the strong earnings beat and long-term growth potential, suggesting a starter position despite high valuations. Seeking Alpha notes SpaceX’s resilience in the AI market, with its Super Intelligence segment now driving 52% of sales. RealMoney Pro points to the 'Musk Discount' and short-term support levels, suggesting opportunities to buy dips amid broader AI sector selling.

Why it matters

SpaceX’s performance is a bellwether for AI infrastructure investments. Its ability to secure and retain large contracts, like Anthropic’s, will determine whether its high valuation is justified. The 90-day exit clause introduces risk, but SpaceX’s financing advantages and rapid deployment capabilities may sustain its competitive edge. Investors are watching for signs of customer retention and margin stability as the AI market matures.

What to watch

Key catalysts include Anthropic’s potential adjustments to its compute spending after early 2027, SpaceX’s Q4 capex guidance of $35–$40 billion, and the December 8 share unlock. Analysts will monitor whether SpaceX can re-rent capacity at higher prices if Anthropic exits, as Musk has suggested. The stock’s reaction to upcoming AI earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet will also test market sentiment.