IMF warns of oil shortfall and Iran conflict risking a global recession

The IMF says the world will face a global oil shortfall this year even if the Iran war ends soon, noting the March disruption was the largest in history. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook trims 2026 global growth to 3.1% with inflation around 4.4%, but a longer war or oil-price spikes could push growth to about 2% and raise recession risk. Iran’s actions have effectively blocked Hormuz, affecting roughly one-fifth of world crude supply, which could drive up fuel costs and inflation, prompting warnings of an energy crisis and calls from leaders for an end to the conflict.