Fall Festivals Shape 2027 Oscar Race: 'La Bola Negra' and 'Wild Horse Nine' Lead

Key points

• 'La Bola Negra' won the TIFF People's Choice Award, a prize that has led to a Best Picture nomination in nine of the last ten years.
• John Malkovich won the Volpi Cup at Venice for 'Wild Horse Nine,' which also received a 13-minute standing ovation and a Silver Medallion tribute at Telluride.
• 'The Odyssey' is the current Best Picture frontrunner, with 90.5% odds for a nomination according to Gold Derby.
• Julianne Moore is the front-runner for Best Actress for 'The Debut,' despite having won an Oscar for 'Still Alice' in 2015.
• 'I Play Rocky' and 'Being Heumann' are emerging as crowd-pleasers with strong potential for a Best Picture nomination.
• The Venice Golden Lion and Volpi Cup for 'Woman Unknown' and Mathilde Arcel, respectively, could impact the Best International Feature and Best Actress races.

Background

The 2026 fall festival season, comprising Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, has traditionally set the stage for the Academy Awards. Previous coverage noted that 'The Odyssey' was the early frontrunner for Best Picture, and the new AMPAS rules for International Feature submissions, which allow films to qualify by winning top prizes at major festivals, have added complexity to the race. The 99th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 14, 2027.

How outlets are covering it

Variety emphasizes the historical significance of the TIFF People's Choice Award, noting that nine of the last ten winners received a Best Picture nomination. Gold Derby provides specific odds, with 'The Odyssey' at 90.5% for a Best Picture nomination and 'Wild Horse Nine' at 88.3%. IndieWire highlights the craft categories, noting that 'La Bola Negra' and 'The Odyssey' are contenders across multiple technical categories. Next Best Picture focuses on the broader landscape, including the potential impact of 'Woman Unknown' on the Best International Feature race. All sources agree on the strength of 'The Odyssey' and 'Wild Horse Nine,' but differ on the potential of 'I Play Rocky' and 'Being Heumann' to break into the top tier.

Why it matters

The fall festival results provide early indicators of the 2027 Oscar race, influencing campaign strategies and voter perceptions. The historical correlation between TIFF People's Choice winners and Best Picture nominations suggests that 'La Bola Negra' could be a major contender. The strong performances of John Malkovich and Julianne Moore in 'Wild Horse Nine' and 'The Debut,' respectively, could lead to acting nominations. The wide-open field, as indicated by the TIFF results, suggests that the race could be competitive, with multiple films vying for the top spots.

What to watch

The next major festival will be the New York Film Festival, which could provide further insights into the race. The release of 'Dune: Part Three' and 'The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth' could also impact the race. The Academy's nomination voting is scheduled for January 2027, and the ceremony will take place on March 14, 2027.